Time patterns
How did stocks move around year-end and New Year during high-rate periods?
Average effective federal funds rate in month 11: at least 4% through 2025, at least 5% in 2026 → month 12 through month 1 of the next year
What followed a 3% one-month rise in the trade-weighted dollar index?
trade-weighted dollar index · New upward crossing of +3% over the preceding 21 valid observations → next 21 valid observations
When was US industrial production lower than 1 year earlier?
United States · Year-over-year decline in industrial production · Consecutive spell duration
Interstate armed conflicts lasting at least 6 months · Terminated and unconfirmed cases
Interstate conflicts · At least 6 months · Unconfirmed-eligibility candidates shown separately
After a 10% decline in real property prices, how long until recovery to the observed peak?
Japan, Korea, United States and China · −10% from peak → recovery to prior peak
How long did joint export declines in Korea and China last?
Korea and China · Merchandise exports to the world · Year-over-year declines in both countries
How long did US effective-rate spells at or above 5% last?
United States · Monthly average effective rate at or above 5% · Consecutive spell duration
After US long-term yields surged, how long did a return to prior levels take?
10-year Treasury monthly average yield: first entry at +1%p or more versus 6 months earlier → return to or below that yield 6 months earlier
After real property prices surge, how long until a 10% correction from the observed peak?
Japan, Korea, United States and China · Annual +10% signal → 10% correction