ASSETCASTING

After real property prices surge, how long until a 10% correction from the observed peak?

Japan, Korea, United States and China · Annual +10% signal → 10% correction

Total 9 · Completed 5 · Ongoing 2 · Excluded 2

Last observed 2021 Q2 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases5 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median14 quartersMean 28.8 quarters
Completed outcome range11 quarters ~ 85 quartersMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

United States · 2021 Q2 · Real-price surge signal · End unconfirmedEnd unconfirmed · 2021 Q2—

Observed 2021 Q2 → End unconfirmed · As of 2026-03-31

Country and data-definition segment
United States · Existing-home prices; domestic input series seasonally adjusted
Signal confirmation quarter
2021 Q2
Peak updated during observation
2024 Q4 · 161.0769
Real-price index at entry
149.5667
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
Not confirmed
Last comparable quarter
2026 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

The exit condition was not confirmed at the observed price of 156.4275 through 2026 Q1. The actual subsequent end is unknown, and the duration is not extended to the verification date, 2026-10-09. This concerns the real index in the relevant United States data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

United States · 2004 Q1 · Real-price surge signalCompleted · 2004 Q114 quarters

Observed 2004 Q1 → 2007 Q3 · As of 2026-03-31

Country and data-definition segment
United States · Existing-home prices; domestic input series seasonally adjusted
Signal confirmation quarter
2004 Q1
Peak updated during observation
2006 Q1 · 153.9192
Real-price index at entry
125.6861
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
2007 Q3
Last comparable quarter
2026 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

The difference from 2004 Q1 to 2007 Q3 is 14 quarters. These are boundaries identified from quarterly average indices, not actual events on the first day of a quarter. This concerns the real index in the relevant United States data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

Korea · 2002 Q1 · Real-price surge signalCompleted · 2002 Q185 quarters

Observed 2002 Q1 → 2023 Q2 · As of 2026-03-31

Country and data-definition segment
Korea · Existing-home prices
Signal confirmation quarter
2002 Q1
Peak updated during observation
2021 Q4 · 126.1450
Real-price index at entry
89.4399
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
2023 Q2
Last comparable quarter
2026 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

The difference from 2002 Q1 to 2023 Q2 is 85 quarters. These are boundaries identified from quarterly average indices, not actual events on the first day of a quarter. This concerns the real index in the relevant Korea data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. Nationwide existing-home and historical land indicators are used, so this cannot be interpreted as claiming that the nominal price of an individual Seoul apartment has not recovered. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

Japan · 1990 Q2 · Real-price surge signalCompleted · 1990 Q211 quarters

Observed 1990 Q2 → 1993 Q1 · As of 2008-03-31

Country and data-definition segment
Japan · Urban residential land prices
Signal confirmation quarter
1990 Q2
Peak updated during observation
1991 Q1 · 189.2763
Real-price index at entry
182.8323
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
1993 Q1
Last comparable quarter
2008 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

The difference from 1990 Q2 to 1993 Q1 is 11 quarters. These are boundaries identified from quarterly average indices, not actual events on the first day of a quarter. This concerns the real index in the relevant Japan data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

  • BIS Real Residential Property Prices · Japan ↗BIS; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; Japan Real Estate Institute · Checked 2026-10-09 · BIS Q.JP.R.628; real index2010=100, deflated by CPI; comparison segment 1955 Q1–2008 Q1; national sources: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; Japan Real Estate Institute
  • BIS Selected Residential Property Prices · compilation and national sources ↗Bank for International Settlements (BIS) · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2026-07-31 version; CPI deflation and quarterly observations; historical interpolation warning; source breaks JP2008Q2/KR1986Q1/US1975Q4/CN2016Q1
Korea · 1988 Q3 · Real-price surge signalCompleted · 1988 Q314 quarters

Observed 1988 Q3 → 1992 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Country and data-definition segment
Korea · Existing-home prices
Signal confirmation quarter
1988 Q3
Peak updated during observation
1991 Q2 · 151.2834
Real-price index at entry
127.6467
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
1992 Q1
Last comparable quarter
2026 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

The difference from 1988 Q3 to 1992 Q1 is 14 quarters. These are boundaries identified from quarterly average indices, not actual events on the first day of a quarter. This concerns the real index in the relevant Korea data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. Nationwide existing-home and historical land indicators are used, so this cannot be interpreted as claiming that the nominal price of an individual Seoul apartment has not recovered. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

Korea · 1983 Q1 · Real-price surge signal · Tracking stopped at a data-definition transitionEnd unconfirmed · 1983 Q1—

Observed 1983 Q1 → End unconfirmed · As of 1985-12-31

Country and data-definition segment
Korea · Residential and non-residential land prices
Signal confirmation quarter
1983 Q1
Peak updated during observation
1985 Q4 · 115.3227
Real-price index at entry
93.5724
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
Not confirmed
Last comparable quarter
1985 Q4
Treatment of subsequent data
Peak comparisons discontinued after changes in data definitions, such as land versus housing

Data definitions change after 1985 Q4, so peaks and recovery status cannot be compared for the same underlying asset coverage. The case is retained as one without a confirmed end in the prior data segment; it is not asserted to have remained unrecovered afterward or through the present. Elapsed duration is not provided. This concerns the real index in the relevant Korea data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. Nationwide existing-home and historical land indicators are used, so this cannot be interpreted as claiming that the nominal price of an individual Seoul apartment has not recovered. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

United States · 1977 Q3 · Real-price surge signalCompleted · 1977 Q320 quarters

Observed 1977 Q3 → 1982 Q3 · As of 2026-03-31

Country and data-definition segment
United States · Existing-home prices; domestic input series seasonally adjusted
Signal confirmation quarter
1977 Q3
Peak updated during observation
1979 Q4 · 82.2821
Real-price index at entry
73.3638
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
1982 Q3
Last comparable quarter
2026 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

The difference from 1977 Q3 to 1982 Q3 is 20 quarters. These are boundaries identified from quarterly average indices, not actual events on the first day of a quarter. This concerns the real index in the relevant United States data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

Korea · 1976 Q1 · Real-price surge signal · Starting boundary uncertainExcluded · 1976 Q1—

Observed 1976 Q1 → 1980 Q1 · As of 1985-12-31

Exclusion reason: The first calculable annual growth rate in this segment was already at least 10%, so the actual entry quarter cannot be identified.

Country and data-definition segment
Korea · Residential and non-residential land prices
Signal confirmation quarter
1976 Q1
Peak updated during observation
1978 Q3 · 119.1278
Real-price index at entry
69.9412
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
1980 Q1
Last comparable quarter
1985 Q4
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

Insufficient signal and peak history at the observation-start boundary excludes this case from final-duration statistics and observation counts. This concerns the real index in the relevant Korea data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. Nationwide existing-home and historical land indicators are used, so this cannot be interpreted as claiming that the nominal price of an individual Seoul apartment has not recovered. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

Japan · 1956 Q1 · Real-price surge signal · Starting boundary uncertainExcluded · 1956 Q1—

Observed 1956 Q1 → 1974 Q3 · As of 2008-03-31

Exclusion reason: The first calculable annual growth rate in this segment was already at least 10%, so the actual entry quarter cannot be identified.

Country and data-definition segment
Japan · Urban residential land prices
Signal confirmation quarter
1956 Q1
Peak updated during observation
1973 Q3 · 153.1654
Real-price index at entry
14.5879
Quarter confirming the exit criterion
1974 Q3
Last comparable quarter
2008 Q1
Treatment of subsequent data
Prices and exit status after this quarter are not estimated

Insufficient signal and peak history at the observation-start boundary excludes this case from final-duration statistics and observation counts. This concerns the real index in the relevant Japan data segment, not recovery of an individual home’s nominal price or invested principal. This is the period waiting for the exit condition after entry, not a claim that annual 10% increases or a bubble persisted throughout.

  • BIS Real Residential Property Prices · Japan ↗BIS; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; Japan Real Estate Institute · Checked 2026-10-09 · BIS Q.JP.R.628; real index2010=100, deflated by CPI; comparison segment 1955 Q1–2008 Q1; national sources: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism; Japan Real Estate Institute
  • BIS Selected Residential Property Prices · compilation and national sources ↗Bank for International Settlements (BIS) · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2026-07-31 version; CPI deflation and quarterly observations; historical interpolation warning; source breaks JP2008Q2/KR1986Q1/US1975Q4/CN2016Q1

How to interpret this

This is the history from observation of a price-surge signal until confirmation of the correction condition. Spells without corrections and those untrackable after data-definition changes are also retained. Completed-sample averages cannot establish that a surge must be followed by a collapse.

These are fixed price rules for examining bubble and overheating risks, not officially diagnosed bubbles. This fixed sample of 4 countries—Japan, Korea, the United States and China—does not represent all of Asia or the world. The real index divides nominal housing prices by CPI; it differs from investment returns incorporating inflation, housing costs and rents, leverage, taxes and transaction costs. Differences in asset coverage, seasonal adjustment and data starting dates make direct cross-country level comparisons difficult. Historical BIS data may contain quarterly interpolations of annual source data and revisions in the current vintage. This is not a trading strategy recreating signals actually published at the time. Averages limited to completed cases omit long-running unended cases, and statistical independence across countries and periods is not guaranteed. This Korean reprocessed analysis is neither an official BIS translation nor an approved result of BIS or national statistical agencies. Users are not charged additional fees for the included BIS statistics.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: entry occurs in the first quarter when annual real-price growth within the same data-definition segment crosses from below 10% to at least 10%. Exit occurs when the first quarter at least 10% below the highest index observed since entry is confirmed. The full original quarterly history is used, but tracking stops at official data-definition transitions in Japan 2008Q2, Korea 1986Q1, United States 1975Q4 and China 2016Q1; peaks and annual growth rates are recalculated. Only one case is open at a time per country and data segment; overlapping entries during that case are recorded in audit data but not counted as separate cases. Entry dates are not selected using future prices or future peaks. The criteria—annual 10% growth and a 10% decline from the peak—were fixed before reviewing outcomes and are not official bubble thresholds. Annual growth is calculated only against the value 4 quarters earlier within the same definition segment; if the first calculable value already exceeds the threshold, the case is excluded for an uncertain starting boundary. Recovery is not asserted across data gaps or definition transitions, and unconfirmed cases are retained. Quarter labels refer to source observation quarters; day 1 in months 1, 4, 7 and 10 is a storage normalization. Completed duration is the difference in observation-quarter numbers, not a transition time measured by month or day. Each case’s reference date is the end of the last comparable data quarter; the source verification date is 2026-10-09. Reported peaks are updated sequentially using only values observed by that point.