When was US industrial production lower than 1 year earlier?

United States · Year-over-year decline in industrial production · Consecutive spell duration

Total 18 · Completed 18 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2024-07 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases18 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included

Duration Median10.5 monthsMean 10.4 months

Completed outcome range1 months ~ 24 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2024.07 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 2024-076 months

Observed 2024-07 → 2025-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2024-07
Indicator at entry: -0.92%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2024-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.27%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 6 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2025-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2024.01 start · 5 monthsCompleted · 2024-015 months

Observed 2024-01 → 2024-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2024-01
Indicator at entry: -1.28%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2024-05
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.06%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 5 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2024-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2023.02 start · 10 monthsCompleted · 2023-0210 months

Observed 2023-02 → 2023-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2023-02
Indicator at entry: -0.16%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2023-11
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.09%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 10 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2023-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2022.12 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2022-121 months

Observed 2022-12 → 2023-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2022-12
Indicator at entry: -0.80%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2022-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.80%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2023-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2019.04 start · 23 monthsCompleted · 2019-0423 months

Observed 2019-04 → 2021-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2019-04
Indicator at entry: -1.02%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2021-02
Last indicator meeting the condition: -5.68%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 23 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2021-03 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2015.03 start · 24 monthsCompleted · 2015-0324 months

Observed 2015-03 → 2017-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2015-03
Indicator at entry: -0.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2017-02
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.69%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 24 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2017-03 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2008.04 start · 21 monthsCompleted · 2008-0421 months

Observed 2008-04 → 2010-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2008-04
Indicator at entry: -0.74%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2009-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: -2.70%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 21 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2010-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2003.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2003-061 months

Observed 2003-06 → 2003-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2003-06
Indicator at entry: -0.06%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2003-06
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.06%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2003-07 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2001.02 start · 16 monthsCompleted · 2001-0216 months

Observed 2001-02 → 2002-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2001-02
Indicator at entry: -0.57%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2002-05
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.43%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 16 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2002-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1990.12 start · 11 monthsCompleted · 1990-1211 months

Observed 1990-12 → 1991-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1990-12
Indicator at entry: -1.14%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1991-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.64%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 11 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1991-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1989.10 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 1989-104 months

Observed 1989-10 → 1990-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1989-10
Indicator at entry: -0.24%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1990-01
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.85%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 4 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1990-02 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1989.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1989-071 months

Observed 1989-07 → 1989-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1989-07
Indicator at entry: -0.15%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1989-07
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.15%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1989-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1985.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1985-071 months

Observed 1985-07 → 1985-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1985-07
Indicator at entry: -0.02%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1985-07
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.02%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1985-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1981.11 start · 18 monthsCompleted · 1981-1118 months

Observed 1981-11 → 1983-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1981-11
Indicator at entry: -1.17%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1983-04
Last indicator meeting the condition: -1.11%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 18 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1983-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1980.03 start · 13 monthsCompleted · 1980-0313 months

Observed 1980-03 → 1981-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1980-03
Indicator at entry: -0.34%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1981-03
Last indicator meeting the condition: -1.52%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 13 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1981-04 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1979.12 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1979-121 months

Observed 1979-12 → 1980-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1979-12
Indicator at entry: -0.23%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1979-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.23%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1980-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1974.09 start · 15 monthsCompleted · 1974-0915 months

Observed 1974-09 → 1975-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1974-09
Indicator at entry: -0.50%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1975-11
Last indicator meeting the condition: -4.03%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 15 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1975-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1970.01 start · 16 monthsCompleted · 1970-0116 months

Observed 1970-01 → 1971-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1970-01
Indicator at entry: -0.68%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1971-04
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.40%
Latest source-data month: 2026-08

The 16 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1971-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted industrial production index (INDPRO) is below 0%. The analysis runs from 1970-01 through the latest verified observation, 2026-08. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Annual change is calculated as (current-month value/value 12 months earlier−1)×100. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.

Industrial Production: Total Index ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · INDPRO; Index 2017=100; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-08-01; full original-table snapshot retained