How long did US effective-rate spells at or above 5% last?

United States · Monthly average effective rate at or above 5% · Consecutive spell duration

Total 9 · Completed 8 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2023-05 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases8 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included

Duration Median18.5 monthsMean 40.3 months

Completed outcome range4 months ~ 174 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2023.05 start · 17 monthsCompleted · 2023-0517 months

Observed 2023-05 → 2024-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2023-05
Indicator at entry: 5.06%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2024-09
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.13%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 17 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2024-10 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2006.07 start · 14 monthsCompleted · 2006-0714 months

Observed 2006-07 → 2007-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2006-07
Indicator at entry: 5.24%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2007-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.02%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 14 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2007-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1999.08 start · 20 monthsCompleted · 1999-0820 months

Observed 1999-08 → 2001-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1999-08
Indicator at entry: 5.07%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2001-03
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.31%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 20 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2001-04 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1994.11 start · 48 monthsCompleted · 1994-1148 months

Observed 1994-11 → 1998-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1994-11
Indicator at entry: 5.29%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1998-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.07%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 48 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1998-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1977.05 start · 174 monthsCompleted · 1977-05174 months

Observed 1977-05 → 1991-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1977-05
Indicator at entry: 5.35%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1991-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.21%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 174 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1991-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1976.05 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 1976-056 months

Observed 1976-05 → 1976-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1976-05
Indicator at entry: 5.29%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1976-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.02%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 6 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1976-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1972.10 start · 39 monthsCompleted · 1972-1039 months

Observed 1972-10 → 1976-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1972-10
Indicator at entry: 5.05%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1975-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.20%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 39 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1976-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1971.07 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 1971-074 months

Observed 1971-07 → 1971-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1971-07
Indicator at entry: 5.31%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1971-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.20%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 4 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1971-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1970.01 start · Start and end uncertainExcluded · 1970-01—

Observed 1970-01 → 1970-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Exclusion reason: The spell began before the analysis start date, so its partial duration within the analysis window is not counted as a completed case.

Condition entry month: 1970-01
Indicator at entry: 8.98%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1970-11
Last indicator meeting the condition: 5.60%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The spell began before the analysis start date, so its partial duration within the analysis window is not counted as a completed case.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells in which the monthly average effective federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS) is at or above 5%. The analysis runs from 1970-01 through the latest verified observation, 2026-09. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.

Federal Funds Effective Rate ↗Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) · Checked 2026-10-09 · FEDFUNDS; Percent; monthly; not seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained