ASSETCASTING

What followed a 3% one-month rise in the trade-weighted dollar index?

trade-weighted dollar index · New upward crossing of +3% over the preceding 21 valid observations → next 21 valid observations

Total 22 · Completed 22 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2024-10-28 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases14 / 22Negative 8 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.5%Mean +0.6%
Completed outcome range-2.6% ~ +4.8%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2024.10.28 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2024-10-28+1.6%

Observed 2024-10-28 → 2024-11-27 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-10-28 · 124.8076 index
Ending observation
2024-11-27 · 126.8205 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.0799% (2024-09-26 → 2024-10-28)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 124.8076 to 126.8205, a spot-quote change of 1.6128%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.09.23 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2022-09-23+0.1%

Observed 2022-09-23 → 2022-10-25 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-09-23 · 127.2853 index
Ending observation
2022-10-25 · 127.3771 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.3924% (2022-08-24 → 2022-09-23)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 127.2853 to 127.3771, a spot-quote change of 0.0721%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.07.05 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2022-07-05-0.2%

Observed 2022-07-05 → 2022-08-03 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-07-05 · 122.6203 index
Ending observation
2022-08-03 · 122.3888 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.8576% (2022-06-02 → 2022-07-05)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 122.6203 to 122.3888, a spot-quote change of -0.1888%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.04.27 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2022-04-27-0.6%

Observed 2022-04-27 → 2022-05-26 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-04-27 · 119.4708 index
Ending observation
2022-05-26 · 118.7687 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.3771% (2022-03-29 → 2022-04-27)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 119.4708 to 118.7687, a spot-quote change of -0.5877%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.03.12 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2020-03-12+1.4%

Observed 2020-03-12 → 2020-04-10 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-03-12 · 120.4883 index
Ending observation
2020-04-10 · 122.1592 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.5492% (2020-02-11 → 2020-03-12)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 120.4883 to 122.1592, a spot-quote change of 1.3868%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.05.08 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2018-05-08+0.9%

Observed 2018-05-08 → 2018-06-07 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-05-08 · 111.063 index
Ending observation
2018-06-07 · 112.0725 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.2841% (2018-04-09 → 2018-05-08)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 111.063 to 112.0725, a spot-quote change of 0.9089%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.11.14 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-11-14-0.4%

Observed 2016-11-14 → 2016-12-14 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-11-14 · 117.2245 index
Ending observation
2016-12-14 · 116.7332 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.169% (2016-10-13 → 2016-11-14)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 117.2245 to 116.7332, a spot-quote change of -0.4191%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.05.31 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-05-31-0.5%

Observed 2016-05-31 → 2016-06-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-05-31 · 112.4276 index
Ending observation
2016-06-29 · 111.8597 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.3082% (2016-04-29 → 2016-05-31)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 112.4276 to 111.8597, a spot-quote change of -0.5051%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.11.16 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2015-11-16+0.7%

Observed 2015-11-16 → 2015-12-16 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-11-16 · 112.2199 index
Ending observation
2015-12-16 · 112.9864 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.2694% (2015-10-15 → 2015-11-16)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 112.2199 to 112.9864, a spot-quote change of 0.683%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.07.20 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2015-07-20+1.4%

Observed 2015-07-20 → 2015-08-18 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-07-20 · 108.6944 index
Ending observation
2015-08-18 · 110.2504 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.418% (2015-06-18 → 2015-07-20)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 108.6944 to 110.2504, a spot-quote change of 1.4315%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.03.10 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2015-03-10-1.6%

Observed 2015-03-10 → 2015-04-08 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-03-10 · 108.1165 index
Ending observation
2015-04-08 · 106.4231 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.1794% (2015-02-04 → 2015-03-10)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 108.1165 to 106.4231, a spot-quote change of -1.5663%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.01.07 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2015-01-07+1.4%

Observed 2015-01-07 → 2015-02-06 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-01-07 · 103.6316 index
Ending observation
2015-02-06 · 105.1283 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.2258% (2014-12-04 → 2015-01-07)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 103.6316 to 105.1283, a spot-quote change of 1.4443%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2014.12.02 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2014-12-02+3%

Observed 2014-12-02 → 2015-01-05 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2014-12-02 · 100.4478 index
Ending observation
2015-01-05 · 103.4976 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.0699% (2014-10-30 → 2014-12-02)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 100.4478 to 103.4976, a spot-quote change of 3.0362%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.05.23 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2012-05-23+0%

Observed 2012-05-23 → 2012-06-22 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-05-23 · 93.8855 index
Ending observation
2012-06-22 · 93.9205 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.3807% (2012-04-24 → 2012-05-23)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 93.8855 to 93.9205, a spot-quote change of 0.0373%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.11.23 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2011-11-23-0.4%

Observed 2011-11-23 → 2011-12-23 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-11-23 · 92.7463 index
Ending observation
2011-12-23 · 92.3897 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.2168% (2011-10-24 → 2011-11-23)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 92.7463 to 92.3897, a spot-quote change of -0.3845%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.09.14 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2011-09-14+0.9%

Observed 2011-09-14 → 2011-10-14 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-09-14 · 89.419 index
Ending observation
2011-10-14 · 90.2116 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.0749% (2011-08-15 → 2011-09-14)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 89.419 to 90.2116, a spot-quote change of 0.8864%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.05.14 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2010-05-14+0.3%

Observed 2010-05-14 → 2010-06-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-05-14 · 95.3746 index
Ending observation
2010-06-15 · 95.7049 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.4399% (2010-04-15 → 2010-05-14)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 95.3746 to 95.7049, a spot-quote change of 0.3463%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.02.19 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-02-19-2.6%

Observed 2009-02-19 → 2009-03-20 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-02-19 · 103.7656 index
Ending observation
2009-03-20 · 101.0581 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.033% (2009-01-16 → 2009-02-19)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 103.7656 to 101.0581, a spot-quote change of -2.6092%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.01.15 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-01-15+2.5%

Observed 2009-01-15 → 2009-02-18 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-01-15 · 101.4653 index
Ending observation
2009-02-18 · 104.0385 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.0344% (2008-12-16 → 2009-01-15)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 101.4653 to 104.0385, a spot-quote change of 2.536%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.11.12 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-11-12-1.7%

Observed 2008-11-12 → 2008-12-11 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-11-12 · 101.1947 index
Ending observation
2008-12-11 · 99.5101 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
5.1325% (2008-10-14 → 2008-11-12)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 101.1947 to 99.5101, a spot-quote change of -1.6647%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.09.10 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-09-10+4.8%

Observed 2008-09-10 → 2008-10-09 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-09-10 · 92.1283 index
Ending observation
2008-10-09 · 96.5143 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.2926% (2008-08-12 → 2008-09-10)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 92.1283 to 96.5143, a spot-quote change of 4.7608%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.08.11 +3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-08-11+2.9%

Observed 2008-08-11 → 2008-09-09 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-08-11 · 89.035 index
Ending observation
2008-09-09 · 91.5779 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
3.2637% (2008-07-11 → 2008-08-11)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the +3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 89.035 to 91.5779, a spot-quote change of 2.8561%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Examines valid daily observations from 2007-01-01~2026-10-02 in sequence, using 2006 data for preliminary calculations. The condition observation date is the first crossing when the change versus 21 valid observations earlier reaches +3% or higher. The same condition must not have been met on the preceding day. After selecting a case, no other case is selected from that date through the next 21 valid observations; only a new subsequent crossing is selected. All cases meeting this rule are included, without selecting by the direction of the outcome. The endpoint of the next 21 valid observations is not used to select the condition. The 21 observations represent roughly a month, not a calendar month; cases with insufficient follow-up observations remain ongoing. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are trade-weighted dollar index, with positive values indicating trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.