ASSETCASTING

How long did joint export declines in Korea and China last?

Korea and China · Merchandise exports to the world · Year-over-year declines in both countries

Total 25 · Completed 24 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2023-05 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases24 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median1 monthsMean 2.7 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 12 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2023.05 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2023-055 months

Observed 2023-05 → 2023-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2023-05
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-15.48%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-6.72%
Last month of joint decline
2023-09
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 5 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2023-10, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2022.10 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2022-105 months

Observed 2022-10 → 2023-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2022-10
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-5.81%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-0.25%
Last month of joint decline
2023-02
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 5 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2023-03, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2020.05 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2020-051 months

Observed 2020-05 → 2020-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2020-05
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-23.74%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-3.50%
Last month of joint decline
2020-05
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2020-06, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2020.03 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2020-031 months

Observed 2020-03 → 2020-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2020-03
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-1.78%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-6.89%
Last month of joint decline
2020-03
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2020-04, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2020.01 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2020-011 months

Observed 2020-01 → 2020-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2020-01
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-6.64%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-2.94%
Last month of joint decline
2020-01
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2020-02, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2019.08 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2019-084 months

Observed 2019-08 → 2019-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2019-08
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-13.99%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-0.56%
Last month of joint decline
2019-11
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 4 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2019-12, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2019.06 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2019-061 months

Observed 2019-06 → 2019-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2019-06
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-13.84%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-1.89%
Last month of joint decline
2019-06
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2019-07, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2019.04 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2019-041 months

Observed 2019-04 → 2019-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2019-04
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-2.14%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-3.17%
Last month of joint decline
2019-04
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2019-05, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2019.02 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2019-021 months

Observed 2019-02 → 2019-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2019-02
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-11.32%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-20.90%
Last month of joint decline
2019-02
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2019-03, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2018.12 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2018-121 months

Observed 2018-12 → 2019-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2018-12
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-1.70%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-4.55%
Last month of joint decline
2018-12
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2019-01, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2016.09 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2016-092 months

Observed 2016-09 → 2016-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2016-09
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-5.95%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-10.48%
Last month of joint decline
2016-10
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 2 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2016-11, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2016.04 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2016-044 months

Observed 2016-04 → 2016-08 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2016-04
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-11.12%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-5.54%
Last month of joint decline
2016-07
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 4 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2016-08, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2015.07 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2015-078 months

Observed 2015-07 → 2016-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2015-07
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-5.20%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-9.27%
Last month of joint decline
2016-02
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 8 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2016-03, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2015.03 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2015-033 months

Observed 2015-03 → 2015-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2015-03
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-4.57%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-15.18%
Last month of joint decline
2015-05
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 3 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2015-06, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2015.01 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2015-011 months

Observed 2015-01 → 2015-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2015-01
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-1.00%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-3.47%
Last month of joint decline
2015-01
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2015-02, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2013.09 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2013-091 months

Observed 2013-09 → 2013-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2013-09
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-1.68%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-0.28%
Last month of joint decline
2013-09
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2013-10, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2013.06 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2013-061 months

Observed 2013-06 → 2013-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2013-06
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-1.00%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-3.12%
Last month of joint decline
2013-06
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2013-07, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2012.01 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2012-011 months

Observed 2012-01 → 2012-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2012-01
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-7.34%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-0.55%
Last month of joint decline
2012-01
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2012-02, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2008.11 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2008-1112 months

Observed 2008-11 → 2009-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2008-11
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-19.45%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-2.22%
Last month of joint decline
2009-10
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 12 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2009-11, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2002.02 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2002-021 months

Observed 2002-02 → 2002-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2002-02
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-17.46%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-0.32%
Last month of joint decline
2002-02
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2002-03, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

2001.06 joint decline beginsCompleted · 2001-061 months

Observed 2001-06 → 2001-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
2001-06
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-15.21%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-0.54%
Last month of joint decline
2001-06
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 2001-07, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

1999.02 joint decline beginsCompleted · 1999-023 months

Observed 1999-02 → 1999-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
1999-02
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-16.79%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-10.32%
Last month of joint decline
1999-04
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 3 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 1999-05, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

1998.08 joint decline beginsCompleted · 1998-084 months

Observed 1998-08 → 1998-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
1998-08
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-12.06%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-2.86%
Last month of joint decline
1998-11
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 4 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 1998-12, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

1998.05 joint decline beginsCompleted · 1998-051 months

Observed 1998-05 → 1998-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observation start month
1998-05
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-3.71%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-1.75%
Last month of joint decline
1998-05
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

These are 1 consecutive months when both countries’ nominal dollar exports were below the same month a year earlier. In 1998-06, at least one country ceased meeting the decline condition, providing the ending boundary; that month is excluded from duration.

1993.01 sample start boundary · Actual entry unknownExcluded · 1993-01—

Observed 1993-01 → 1993-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Exclusion reason: Declines in both countries are confirmed, but the entry before the common sample began cannot be identified, so the case is excluded from total-duration statistics.

Observation start month
1993-01
Korean exports, year-over-year change
-1.18%
Chinese exports, year-over-year change
-15.89%
Last month of joint decline
1993-01
Common source-data cutoff
2026-06

This is the first month identified in the sample, not the actual date when economic conditions changed. The case remains observed, but a precise total duration is not fabricated.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics examine how much the countries’ export declines overlapped in time. Joint declines alone cannot establish that China caused Korea’s export decline or that the same trajectory will recur.

Only these two countries are compared; they do not represent all of Asia, including Japan, Taiwan and Southeast Asia. Even year-over-year comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted data can retain Lunar New Year timing differences and base effects. Nominal dollar values reflect changes in export prices and exchange rates as well as volume. China’s months 1 and 2 use the separate values provided by OECD without arbitrarily allocating a combined release. Common data through 2026-06-30 are used, and subsequent monthly conditions are not estimated. Source data can be revised; this is not real-time predictive validation using only data available at the time. Cases and country-specific patterns can overlap, and statistical independence is not guaranteed.

Conditions, methodology and sources

OECD monthly merchandise exports to the world for Korea and China (nominal dollars, non-seasonally adjusted) were each compared with values 12 months earlier. All mutually comparable months in 1993-01~2026-06 were aligned by date. Consecutive months when both changes were below 0% formed a case; the first month when at least one country reached 0% or above was the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between entry and the ending boundary, excluding the ending month. If the condition was already met at the sample start, the observation is included but excluded from mean duration because actual entry is unknown. Missing data or different months across countries are not joined or filled using future data. These are not month-over-month changes or stock returns and should not be extrapolated into an Asia-wide composite economic index.