ASSETCASTING

After US long-term yields surged, how long did a return to prior levels take?

10-year Treasury monthly average yield: first entry at +1%p or more versus 6 months earlier → return to or below that yield 6 months earlier

Total 7 · Completed 6 · Ongoing 1 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2022-04 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases6 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median40.5 monthsMean 44.3 months
Completed outcome range26 months ~ 76 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2022-04 Treasury-yield surgeEnd unconfirmed · 2022-04—

Observed 2022-04 → End unconfirmed · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
2021-10 · 1.58%
Entry monthly average
2022-04 · 2.75%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

2009-06 Treasury-yield surgeCompleted · 2009-0626 months

Observed 2009-06 → 2011-08 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
2008-12 · 2.42%
Entry monthly average
2009-06 · 3.72%
Ending monthly average
2011-08 · 2.3%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

1999-06 Treasury-yield surgeCompleted · 1999-0628 months

Observed 1999-06 → 2001-10 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
1998-12 · 4.65%
Entry monthly average
1999-06 · 5.9%
Ending monthly average
2001-10 · 4.57%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

1994-03 Treasury-yield surgeCompleted · 1994-0353 months

Observed 1994-03 → 1998-08 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
1993-09 · 5.36%
Entry monthly average
1994-03 · 6.48%
Ending monthly average
1998-08 · 5.34%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

1987-05 Treasury-yield surgeCompleted · 1987-0555 months

Observed 1987-05 → 1991-12 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
1986-11 · 7.25%
Entry monthly average
1987-05 · 8.61%
Ending monthly average
1991-12 · 7.09%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

1979-10 Treasury-yield surgeCompleted · 1979-1076 months

Observed 1979-10 → 1986-02 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
1979-04 · 9.18%
Entry monthly average
1979-10 · 10.3%
Ending monthly average
1986-02 · 8.7%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

1974-08 Treasury-yield surgeCompleted · 1974-0828 months

Observed 1974-08 → 1976-12 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
1974-02 · 6.96%
Entry monthly average
1974-08 · 8.04%
Ending monthly average
1976-12 · 6.87%

Observes the interval from the first month when the monthly average yield is at least 1%p above its level 6 months earlier to the first month when it returns to or below that baseline yield. This measures a yield reversal, not the recovery period for bond prices or invested principal.

How to interpret this

Outcomes can differ even under the same condition. No comparison with a control group over the full period or out-of-sample testing has been performed, so no excess returns or predictive power are claimed. Statistics limited to completed cases may appear optimistic because they exclude long-running uncompleted cases.

Yield changes are compared in %p. A yield increase of 1%p is not the same as a bond return of −1%. These are not bond investment returns incorporating coupons, duration, reinvestment and transaction costs. Intraday or daily yields may have returned before the monthly average did.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Uses consecutive monthly data from 1970, month 1 through 2026, month 9. Entry occurs only in the first month when the condition changes from false to true. The recovery threshold is fixed at the yield 6 months before entry. Duration is the number of months between the two observation months. Additional entries during tracking and re-entry in the ending month are blocked; the next case begins with a subsequent new condition entry. Cases already meeting the condition at the data boundary are marked separately and excluded from aggregation. Cases with no confirmed end through the latest month are marked as having an unconfirmed end and excluded from completed-case statistics. Month-start dates represent stored months, not actual trading or announcement dates. Monthly averages are known after month-end, so this is not a real-time trading backtest. Thresholds are analytical conditions fixed before reviewing results, not official risk determinations.