Case studies
Questions That Remain After an Explosion: Iran’s 2025 Field-Verification Gap
The IAEA’s record of interrupted inspections after attacks distinguishes observing a strike from verifying nuclear activities.
Macro · 2024.12.09Post-Transition Deferral Was Not a Blanket Return Order: Germany’s Syrian Asylum Decisions
A historical case separating political return demands from the scope of actual administrative decisions.
Macro · 2024.11The 2024 youth vote shift: Trump's gains were real, but not an overall win
Using CIRCLE and AP VoteCast data, this case reviews 2024 turnout, vote choice, and the gender gap among Americans 18~29, and separates vote shifts from overreadings as policy agreement or realignment.
Macro · 2022.09.23When the Bond Market Talked Back: The 2022 UK Gilt Crisis
After unfunded tax cuts sent gilt yields soaring and triggered a pension-fund collateral crunch, the Bank of England intervened with temporary gilt purchases and the government reversed the cuts. A real-world case of how the bond market answers when a government tries to hold rates down.
Macro · 2022.09.13When hotter-than-expected inflation moved the Fed and markets together: September (month 9) 2022
When the August (month 8) CPI released on September (month 9) 13, 2022 beat expectations, 75bp hike expectations hardened and stocks plunged. This case traces how the expectations miss connected rate repricing to equity prices.
Macro · 2022.07.14Fuel Lifted PPI, Then the Next Release Reversed Direction: A 2022 Record
Compare contemporaneous releases and components rather than reading energy-driven producer-price swings directly as persistent broad inflation.
Macro · 2021.09.07Bitcoin made legal tender, wallets installed but unused — El Salvador 2021
In September (month 9) 2021, Bitcoin became legal tender and a 30 dollar bonus pushed Chivo wallets, but after outages, distrust and weak sustained use, a late 2024 IMF deal made private acceptance voluntary and pared public participation. This case files the precedent of a government technology rollout.
Macro · 1979.10 — 1982.10The Volcker Disinflation, 1979-1982: 20% Rates and Twin Recessions
How the Federal Reserve's October (month 10) 6, 1979 shift to reserves targeting led to a 20 percent federal funds rate, two recessions, and the disinflation confirmed by October (month 10) 1982, drawn from the Federal Reserve's official history. Readers can check the historical backbone of the video's fourth 1970s phase, the real-rate spike regime behind its 2020s strategy, against independent records.
Macro · 1966.11.08 — 1967.03.101966, when suspending the investment tax credit, not rate hikes, stopped the boom
In the US credit crunch of 1966, deposit rate ceilings and an equipment investment boom dried up housing finance, and on November (month 11) 8 President Johnson suspended the investment tax credit to target the borrower itself. Rate, starts and investment data are checked against source documents, separating what matches the video's telling from its limits.