Case studies
Macro · 1962.10.16 — 1962.10.28
Finding an Exit from Nuclear Confrontation: Public Pledges and Private Concessions in the Cuban Missile Crisis
Official records show how military pressure and diplomacy operated together during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Public non-invasion assurances and private missile-removal discussions were distinct, and resolving the immediate crisis did not end the arms race.
Macro · 1937.06.12The purge that emptied the high command invited miscalculation 4 years later
The military purge that began with the June (month 6) 1937 execution of 8 men including a Soviet marshal emptied the high command, and on June (month 6) 22, 1941 the Barbarossa surprise met countless ignored warnings. The purge, vacuum and miscalculation chain is checked against sources, with differences from today's China kept distinct.