A correct forecast—but was it sound judgment?
Consider how to review good outcomes separately from good decision-making processes.
ASSETCASTING commentary
An interpretation of the fictional story, not a statement by the original video creator.Reviewing decision quality requires preserving the reasons and invalidation conditions recorded before the outcome was known. Even after a favorable result, distinguish whether the expected mechanism occurred or an unforeseen factor helped. Apply the same criteria to failed decisions to reduce selective explanations of successes. The story concerns building a record that can be reviewed repeatedly rather than judging from a single outcome.