Tell me I got quarter-end right!!! Tell me!!
- What to look for
- You can see how the indicator-tracking broadcast is structured, from reviewing quarter-end trading flows, interest rates, and exchange rates to interpreting PCE and GDP live, calculating duration, and the speaker's own assessment that he has settled the debate.
- Why it matters
- Understanding this material can provide a reference for interpreting bond and index reactions when economic indicators are released, and for maintaining a perspective that guards against bias.
AI summary
Managing Director Al describes the September (month 9) 30 quarter-end session as having ended quietly and well, and diagnoses a poor atmosphere in which good news gets no response. He reviews foreign investors' sales of 2 trillion won and cumulative net sales of 202 trillion won over 2 years, the KOSPI at 6,800 and its 120 day moving average at 7,200, and the KOSDAQ at 855. He criticizes weakness in US indexes and window dressing in the Nikkei, announces that he is entering a short position in the Nikkei225, and reports the won-dollar exchange rate at 1,350 won. He discusses the futility of predicting the US 10 year yield and the view that Samsung and Hynix investors are stuck in losing positions, along with the Korean 3 year yield at 4.01%, WTI at 90 dollars, and a ceasefire scenario. He discusses holding 40% cash, views on hedge funds' cash and leverage, Samsung Electronics at 269,000 won, Hynix at 178 ten-thousand won plus 3 thousand won, and Oracle as a canary. He advises against gold futures and discusses speculators, covers core PCE at 3.0% and GDP at 2.2% live, and uses duration to calculate gains in 10 year bonds. He explains weakness in US indexes and the need to guard against bias, assesses his own quarter-end call as correct, and closes with long-term outlooks, nonfarm payrolls, and trading principles. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.