From the October (month 10) low of a midterm year through July (month 7) of the next year: checking the 2022 to 2023 S&P 500 record
It checks FRED daily closes around the November (month 11) 8, 2022 midterms to see whether the S&P 500 rose from its October (month 10) 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03 to 4,588.96 on July (month 7) 31, 2023, and compares the quarter 4 and next year quarter 1 and 2 gains with the video's midterm miracle claim.
Updated Oct 19, 2026
The 2022 midterm election day was November (month 11) 8
The 2022 United States elections (Senate, House, governors and others) were held on 2022-11-08. That day the S&P 500 closed at 3,828.11.
Quarter 4 of 2022: up 7.08% from 3,585.62 at end September (month 9) to 3,839.50 at year end
S&P 500 closes were 3,585.62 on 2022-09-30, 3,871.98 on 2022-10-31, and 3,839.50 on 2022-12-30 (the last trading day of 2022 was 2022-12-30). That is up 7.99% from end September (month 9) to end October (month 10) and up 7.08% from end September (month 9) to year end, so quarter 4 finished positive. The gains are computed directly from the closes.
Quarter 1 of 2023 up 7.03%, quarter 2 up 8.30%
S&P 500 closes were 4,109.31 on 2023-03-31, 4,450.38 on 2023-06-30, and 4,588.96 on 2023-07-31. That is up 7.03% from end 2022 (3,839.50) to end of quarter 1, up 8.30% from end of quarter 1 to end of quarter 2, and up 15.91% from end 2022 to end of the first half of 2023. From the 2022 closing low (3,577.03 on 2022-10-12) to end July (month 7) 2023, the gain is 28.29%. The gains are computed directly from the closes.
This sample points in the same direction as the claim
In the 2022 sample, the rebound after October (month 10) of the midterm year, the positive quarter 4, and consecutive gains in quarters 1 and 2 of the next year all appeared, matching the direction of the statistics in the video. But one sample does not prove a 100 year pattern, and the first half 2023 rally also reflected macro and earnings factors unrelated to the election calendar. Read this case as a cross check of the claim, not as a forecast of the current market direction.
What this case does not verify
The figures used are price index closes, which can differ from dividend reinvested total return. This is a check of one sample from 2022 to 2023, so it does not guarantee the same pattern in other midterm years, and the past rebound must not be read as a current bottom or a return guarantee. The 84% and 88% probability figures in the video were not verified here for lack of full 100 year source data.
Sources
- FRED — S&P 500 (SP500, daily)Accessed Oct 19, 2026
- Wikipedia — 2022 United States electionsAccessed Oct 19, 2026