ASSETCASTING
MarketsEvent 2022.11.08

Did stocks rise once the midterms ended: the records of 2018 and 2022

This case arranges the actual records of the December (month 12) plunge after the 2018 midterms and the rebound on an inflation print after the post-election dip in 2022. In both markets, where the lifting of election uncertainty did not guarantee gains, larger forces — rates and inflation — set the direction.

Updated Oct 13, 2026

Do share prices rise once election uncertainty lifts?
Verified facts

2018: a December (month 12) plunge arrived after the election

In the November 6 (month 11), 2018 midterms, Democrats took the House with 235 seats, seizing the majority from Republicans (199 seats). But the S&P 500 fell 9.18% from end-November (month 11) 2760.17 to end-December (month 12) 2506.85 — the weakest December (month 12) in monthly data going back to 1985. It bottomed at a cycle closing low of 2351.10 on December 24 (month 12), rebounded 4.96% on the next trading day, the 26th, and finished the year down 6.24%, the worst year since 2008 (a 38.49% fall). The next year, 2019, it regained the losses with a 28.88% gain.

Sources [1][3]
Verified facts

2022: a post-election-day dip, then a rebound on the inflation print

In the November 8 (month 11), 2022 midterms, Republicans retook the House with 222 seats, a narrow majority over Democrats (213 seats). The S&P 500 had marked a bear-market closing low of 3577.03 on October 12 (month 10), climbed to 3828.11 by election day, November 8 (month 11), but fell 2.08% the next day, the 9th. On the 10th, October (month 10) CPI rose 7.7% from a year earlier, cooling from 8.2% in September and below expectations, and the index soared 5.54% for its biggest rally in 2 years, closing the year at 3839.50 — 7.34% above the October (month 10) low.

Sources [2][3][4]
Interpretation

Lifting uncertainty was not enough to lift prices

In both cases, the election itself did not set the direction. In 2018, the market kept falling for over a month after the vote, with the low forming about 7 weeks after election day, while in 2022 it fell the day after the vote and then rebounded on a separate trigger — cooling inflation. That opposite paths followed the same setup of a House majority flip means rate, inflation, and earnings variables likely outweighed the election calendar in setting direction. So rather than treating the end of the midterms as a buy signal, the record favors responding while confirming the actual path of rates and inflation afterward.

Sources [3][4]
Limitations

Why two cases cannot make a forecast

The sample is only two episodes: conditions in late 2018 differed from those in late 2022, and both differ from current conditions as well. A past rebound guarantees neither the present bottom nor future returns, so treat this record only as reference material for checking pre- and post-election scenarios.

Sources

  1. 2018 United States House of Representatives electionsAccessed Oct 13, 2026
  2. 2022 United States House of Representatives electionsAccessed Oct 13, 2026
  3. S&P 500 (^GSPC) historical price data - Yahoo FinanceAccessed Oct 13, 2026
  4. Stock market surges after inflation report shows the pain of high prices may ease - NPRAccessed Oct 13, 2026

Related learning notes

"The Real Reason Behind Foreign Selling": How Far Will Our Market Fall, and Why You Must Not Sell Now (with Representative Jo Jin-pyo and Managing Director Heo Jae-hwan)Because the video expects uncertainty to lift and seasonal strength to follow the midterms, read this alongside the actual post-election records of the 2018 selloff and the 2022 moves to test both the basis and the limits of that premise.Market Close: Stocks Mixed, Subscription Muse Assistant, October Surprise Watch • 10/12/26The video's late-election political uncertainty connects to an existing case showing different post-election market paths amid rate and inflation conditions. It neither verifies today's political reporting nor forecasts stocks from the election calendar alone.An era when the investment game changes beyond macro indicators | Baek Chan-gyu, NH Investment & Securities Center Head [Morning N Investment]Read alongside the existing case on actual post-midterm stock records in 2018 and 2022, testing the video's core premise of post-election relief and easing political uncertainty two weeks before the vote. Past elections do not guarantee this blue-wave scenario or index direction.So Similar to the 2018 Stock-Market Plunge: Is This the KOSPI’s Final Selloff? Money Moves to Bonds and Foreigners Buy 1.2 Trillion Won of Late-Session Futures | Hwang Yu-hyeonUse this comparative record to question the video’s historical-chart analogy and post-midterm rebound expectations. The end of an election, a market bottom and an inflation release need not coincide, so chart resemblance or the election calendar alone cannot establish a rebound or exit date. Do not mechanically apply historical US index behavior to today’s semiconductor-concentrated Korean market.Nasdaq at Highs but Caution Ahead (QQQ Tesla Palantir Amazon AlphabetCompare the election-related pullback scenario with differing historical post-election paths. The calendar alone does not establish direction, and this does not validate individual chart targets.'This Day Matters Most': 3 Reasons for the Crash, Foreign Shakeouts Near an End — Hold On Just Until Then (Rep. Kang Gwan-woo)Set the video's remark on post-midterm relief rallies against the actual record of the December 2018 plunge and the 2022 rebound on the inflation print. Read apart the point that the vote itself did not guarantee gains.