Pew’s retrospective analysis separates turnout from switching
Use a real study linking panel responses and turnout records to distinguish abstention, returning voters and candidate switching.
Updated Oct 29, 2026
Tracking participation separately from choice
In its analysis released on 2025-06-26, Pew combined panel surveys with turnout records. Candidate choice remained self-reported; turnout records do not reveal whom someone voted for.
Results involve more than switching candidates
The analysis describes contributions from returning Trump supporters and people who had not voted in the previous election. Changes between elections therefore reflect who turned out as well as who changed candidates.
Classify possible behavior behind dissatisfaction
Do not count policy disappointment automatically as a vote for the opposing party. Asking separately about switching, staying and not participating reveals different possible paths.
Limits of applying a retrospective study
This retrospective study predicts neither the video participants’ behavior nor the current midterm result. Panel responses, record matching and weighting have limitations, and its design differs from a small follow-up discussion.
Sources
- Pew Research Center — Validated voters methodologyAccessed Oct 29, 2026
- Pew Research Center — Voter turnout, 2020–2024Accessed Oct 29, 2026