[Hong Jang-won's Bull & Bear] Iran Has Lost Control of Hormuz—Why Oil Prices Still Are Not Falling

The speaker reports that Middle Eastern crude oil exports have nearly recovered to prewar levels on a weekly basis, and that the 4 week moving average is also rising, although less strongly because of earlier low readings. The speaker explains that oil-producing countries have adapted to the blockade by using bypass pipelines, changing shipping routes, and parking large tankers on both sides of Hormuz while transferring cargo with smaller vessels. Nevertheless, WTI remains at 90 dollars, carrying a premium of around 20 dollars per barrel over the prewar level of 70 dollars. The first reason given is additional shipping costs of 3 ten-million~4 ten-million dollars per round trip through Hormuz, or 15~20 dollars per barrel, with insurance premiums charged separately. The second reason is growing instability: according to UKMTO's tally, reports of vessels being hit increased again from September (month 9) 29 through October (month 10) 2, following a lull on September (month 9) 24~28. The speaker notes that the lull overlapped with President Pezeshkian's and Foreign Minister Araghchi's stays in New York, suggesting that Iran may have adjusted the intensity of its attacks to leave room for negotiations. The speaker believes that a price surge or a sharp drop in exports is unlikely because Iran has not gained control of Hormuz, but that oil prices will fall substantially only if attack risks, freight rates, and insurance premiums all decline together. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.