Even under an extreme downside scenario, Hynix at KRW 100–120 ten-thousands is ‘rock bottom’ | So Hyun-chul and Park Se-ik [Weekend study / 26.10.31]
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
If prices fall by 30% each quarter, what is the annual decline?
Assume both the previous year’s four-quarter average and final-quarter price are 100, and each new quarter’s average price falls 30% from the prior quarter. New quarterly prices are 70, 49, 34.3 and 24.01, giving an annual average of 44.3275. The annual average is approximately 55.67% below the previous year, while the final quarter is approximately 75.99% below the previous final quarter. The same path therefore produces different average and endpoint comparisons, which cannot be interchanged.
Check for yourself
- Is the stated decline sequential, against the same quarter a year earlier, or against an annual average?
- Does the index compare the same product, or does the company’s average selling price include product-mix changes?
Limits of application
This hypothetical price-index calculation does not reproduce the video’s model. Different previous-year prices, product mix or shipment weights change the result. It cannot by itself determine revenue, earnings or share prices, or establish that the video’s annual decline is incorrect.
- What to look for
- Inspect the inputs connecting memory-price declines to company earnings, and distinguish how HBM contracts and commodity-product mix affect estimates.
- Why it matters
- Align quarter-end and annual-average price comparisons, and examine earnings forecasts separately from market valuation multiples to assess what a claimed worst-case scenario actually covers.
Timeline
7 segmentsThe speaker argues undervaluation from a model that remains profitable after larger memory-price declines, conditional on shipments, product mix, costs and valuation multiples. “Rock bottom” is not a verified price floor, and the speaker also acknowledges that shares could trade below the discussed range. Multiples, contract performance, cash flow and additional shocks may change alongside forecast earnings, so neither automatic recovery nor continued holding is established.