You Don't Need to Worry About Gold Prices (Baek Young-chan) | Infomax Live, Broadcast on September (month 9) 29, 2026

Center Director Baek Young-chan forecasts that oil prices will stabilize at 80~90 dollars in quarter 4 without returning to 150 dollars (a WTI path from 92 to 86·76 dollars). He argues that prices of 200 dollars would hurt both the United States and Iran and lead to the formation of a coalition. He believes interest rates remain unsettled because of a combination of inflation, war, and politics. He views oil prices in the 90-dollar range as creating burdens through European diesel prices and US prices of 4 dollars, but considers these an inconvenience rather than something unbearable; he also considers prices of 1900 won in Korea tolerable. He discusses the pressure from OECD inventory coverage of 55.91 days being below the 5-year level, along with the EIA outlook, and forecasts inventory recovery and shrinking premiums after the election, while remaining wary of the Trump variable. Although the SPR is at its 1980 level, he considers commercial inventories of 4.26 hundred-million barrels healthy. Given demand for replenishment, he expects a gradual decline and prices above 70 dollars in the first half of next year. He forecasts a settlement as the justification for the conflict disappears after the midterm elections and Iran faces fiscal pressure, and expects intervention by Europe and Asia to ease supply-chain pressures if prices reach 150 dollars. He also explains the possibility of oversupply in year 27, citing a fair-value model in the low 60-dollar range, alternative energy, and slowing demand. He forecasts gold moving sideways in the short term, reaching 4500 dollars in quarter 4, and rising 15~20% next year. He explains the puzzle of months 8~9 through correlations with 4 aspects of short-term interest rates: the neutral rate and policy stance versus expected inflation and the term premium. Using statistics from 18 episodes of sharp increases in yields on 2-year bonds, he presents subsequent gold-price increases after 3·6 months. He forecasts an interest-rate peak in months 3~4 next year, and rates in Korea moving sideways after 1 hike in the first half. His top sector preferences are energy, chemicals, semiconductors/equipment, shipbuilding, retail/distribution, and securities. He argues that battery ESS and capacity utilization will improve and that SK Innovation is at a bottom (PBR of 1 times and refining at 4 trillion won). All directional forecasts are the speaker's conditional judgments, not statements establishing short-term price predictions as certain.