A Third “Memory Winter” Warning: What Happened the Last Two Times? | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik [Womaesinbak / 26.11.10 Tue.]
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
Can memory revenue fall as shipments rise?
If a hypothetical product ships 20% more units at an average selling price 25% lower, its revenue falls to 90% of the original level. Multiply the shipment factor of 1.20 by the price factor of 0.75 to get 0.90. Then check product costs and inventory write-downs to see how the revenue change flows through to operating profit.
Check for yourself
- When overall DRAM revenue share increases, what changed in shipments and in the share of higher-priced products?
- When will the announced capacity additions translate into more units that suppliers can ship to customers?
Limits of application
This is a hypothetical single-product calculation. Product mix, long-term contract pricing, yields, costs, and inventories also affect actual companies.
- What to look for
- See which assumptions support near-term results and long-term profitability when a report takes different views over those time horizons.
- Why it matters
- Track projects from announcements through operations and shipments, then test how sensitive earnings are when shipment volumes and selling prices move in different directions.
Timeline
5 segmentsThe Morgan Stanley outlook presented in the video raises near-term profit estimates while considering how data-center delays and expanding memory supply could pressure long-term margins. Counterpoint’s estimate of CXMT’s 9% revenue share covers the overall DRAM market.