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[Lee Hyun-cheol] Apartment Cycle Research InstituteOctober 25, 2026

“Never be fooled by the media”: Could rates soon reach 13%? Homebuyers this year face a wave of bankruptcies | Elliott full interview

An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.

Sale equity of KRW 100 million differs from interest already paid

This simplifies the video’s example into explicit assumptions. Buy a KRW 1 billion home with KRW 400 million equity and a KRW 600 million loan, make no principal repayments, and pay 7% annual interest from separate income for 6 years. Annual interest is KRW 42 million and cumulative interest is KRW 252 million. After a 30% price decline, selling for KRW 700 million and repaying KRW 600 million leaves KRW 100 million in sale equity. Subtracting past interest again gives -KRW 152 million as a comparison measure after separately paid interest, not the settlement balance returned by the bank. Relative to initial equity of KRW 400 million, the KRW 300 million price loss plus interest totals KRW 552 million. A real household comparison needs amortisation, rate resets, taxes, repairs, housing benefits and alternative rent over the same period.

Check for yourself

  1. Has principal been repaid, or is the outstanding balance unchanged?
  2. Have you separated the end of the fixed-rate period from the end of a principal-payment grace period and principal maturity?
  3. Have settlement amounts been distinguished from costs previously paid from income without double counting?

Limits of application

Every amount, rate, period and the 30% decline are assumptions, not forecasts. Principal repayments, taxes, transaction and maintenance costs, opportunity costs, housing benefits and alternative rent are excluded. This simple example is neither actual net performance against not buying nor a bankruptcy probability.

What to look for
Examine the transactions, indices and historical comparisons used to construct a bearish housing forecast, distinguishing measures from causal inferences.
Why it matters
Check your contractual reset dates, repayment method and ownership cash flow, then separate sale equity from cumulative costs to assess resilience to price and rate changes rather than simply act on a forecast.

Timeline

11 segments
  1. Short sovereign yields reflect more than policy expectations, including risk and liquidity, so they do not mechanically dictate policy rates, nor can a long cycle establish future mortgage rates. The end of an initial fixed-rate period, the end of a principal-payment grace period and principal maturity are separate events; switching a hybrid loan to variable does not fix that reset rate for the remaining term, so check contractual reset intervals and the repayment schedule.

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Educational information only; not investment advice.