"LG Semiconductor revived after 27 years": why the US, Japan and the Netherlands are supposedly alarmed
- What to look for
- Separate LG’s former memory business from current equipment development, and understand the stacking and interconnect challenges hybrid bonding addresses along with remaining commercialization steps.
- Why it matters
- Examine customer adoption, supplier selection and cost assumptions when translating industry growth into revenue, and compare why equipment orders and profits may move differently.
Timeline
7 segmentsThe video contrasts bump-based thermocompression with hybrid bonding for denser interconnects, highlighting cleanliness, alignment and bonding processes. Its LG timetable of production validation in 2028 and commercialization in 2030 is a target, not evidence of completed customer adoption or secured revenue. Developing the next technology does not guarantee immediate replacement of thermocompression or incumbent suppliers.
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
Filter market size twice before calling it revenue
This is a hypothetical example, not an LG forecast. Assume potential demand of 100 tools, adoption of the target process by 30% of that demand, and a new supplier winning 40% of that market. Sales volume is 100×30%×40%=12 tools. At an assumed price of KRW 100 million per tool, revenue is KRW 1,200 million. With a 25% gross margin and separate period fixed costs of KRW 350 million, operating profit is 1,200×25%-350=-50 million won. If process adoption is 50% and the supplier wins 60%, volume becomes 30 tools, revenue KRW 3,000 million and operating profit KRW 400 million under the same other assumptions. This also assumes all ordered tools are delivered, accepted and meet revenue-recognition requirements in the period. Orders, revenue and net income are different metrics and should not be mixed with this example’s operating profit.
Check for yourself
- How much potential demand actually adopts the relevant bonding process?
- What evidence supports completed customer qualification and the supplier’s share of awarded business?
- How are delivery, acceptance, development, warranty and service costs reflected?
Limits of application
Values and ratios illustrate sensitivity, not actual LG or Besi tool prices, adoption rates or margins. Manufacturing costs are assumed to be included in gross margin, with period fixed costs deducted separately. Taxes, financing costs, working capital and customer-specific terms are omitted. A development target year must not be treated as a guaranteed revenue year.