Unusual KOSPI moves: what may happen in Korean stocks | Sung Sang-hyun’s Macro Beyond 9-3
An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.
Higher profit can still mean a lower return on capital
Compare hypothetical businesses using the same period and units. After-tax operating profit of 12 on average invested capital of 100 gives a return of 12%. Profit rising to 13 on average capital of 150 yields only 13 ÷ 150 × 100 ≈ 8.7%. Assuming a capital cost of 10% in both cases, profit after the capital charge is 2 and -2 respectively. This is why growth in revenue or profit must be compared with additional capital needs and recovery time. Even with a contract, check collection, maintenance and reinvestment before comparing cash flows.
Check for yourself
- How much capital was tied up on average to earn the additional profit?
- What supports today’s high returns after a supply shortage eases?
- Who retains contractual obligations when demand disappoints, and can payment actually be collected?
Limits of application
100, 12, 12%, 150, 13, 13 ÷ 150 × 100 ≈ 8.7%, 10%, 2 and -2 are assumed values. Average invested capital is simplified as stable within each period; this calculates neither company value nor stock returns. Accounting definitions, taxes, working capital and investment timing change real comparisons.
- What to look for
- Examine the speaker’s framework for translating AI growth into questions about supply-chain bottlenecks, recurring investment and cash recovery.
- Why it matters
- Compare demand forecasts with contracts and revenue, earnings with cash and capital returns, and hindsight winners with strategies actually available at the time.
Timeline
8 segmentsThe speaker rejects both treating all large investment as a bubble and letting innovation justify any price. The checks are willingness to pay, sustained scarcity, free cash flow and returns relative to capital cost; passing them still does not guarantee share-price gains.
