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Maekyung LiveOctober 29, 2026

[Hong Jang-won’s Bull & Bear] Star student Google stumbles. Will the semiconductor rebound lose momentum?

An independent exercise, not a statement by the video creator or verification of every claim in the video.

Reconcile free cash flow with the cash balance

This is a hypothetical calculation in consistent units, not actual company figures. Operating cash flow of 42 less cash capex of 51 gives free cash flow of 42 − 51 = −9. Assume opening cash of 80, net financing inflows of 5 and no other cash movements. Closing cash is 80 − 9 + 5 = 76. Negative cash flow after investment can coexist with remaining cash reserves. Assessing investment sustainability therefore requires opening liquidity, debt maturities, spending schedules and funding terms alongside the size of a quarterly deficit.

Check for yourself

  1. Does capex mean actual cash payments, or does it include noncash acquisitions such as leases?
  2. Does higher closing cash come from operations or from borrowing and equity issuance?
  3. Does the cash-flow improvement target depend on revenue realization or on the timing of investment payments?

Limits of application

All numbers are hypothetical and do not reproduce Google, Microsoft or Oracle financial statements. Acquisitions, financial-asset transactions, dividends, currency effects and other cash movements are assumed absent; restrictions on cash and borrowing capacity are not modeled. Match the free-cash-flow definition and financial reporting period.

What to look for
Explore why Microsoft, Google and Oracle received different assessments despite strong cloud news, using business mix and prior expectations.
Why it matters
Use the distinctions between search revenue growth and usage, capex versus forecasts and versus prior periods, and current cash versus future cash flow when reading earnings.

Timeline

4 segments
  1. The video compares the market’s response to Oracle’s planned cash-flow improvement and reduced investment burden with its response to Google earnings. Oracle’s cash-flow and financing plans are management forecasts, and its additional funding limit includes conditions such as excluding refinancing existing debt. Prior expectations may shape market reactions, but this comparison alone establishes neither causality nor future returns.

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Educational information only; not investment advice.