ASSETCASTING

After oil crashes 30% in 3 months, what happens 6 months later?

WTI monthly average spot price: first entry at −30% or lower versus 3 months earlier → monthly average price change 6 months later

Total 6 · Completed 5 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2020-03 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases4 / 5Negative 1 · Flat 0
Return Median+5.9%Mean +9.6%
Completed outcome range-35.2% ~ +40.9%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2020-03 WTI crashCompleted · 2020-03+35.7%

Observed 2020-03 → 2020-09 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
2019-12 · 59.88 USD/barrel
Entry monthly average
2020-03 · 29.21 USD/barrel
Ending monthly average
2020-09 · 39.63 USD/barrel

Compares the price in the first month when the monthly average spot price is at least 30% below its level 3 months earlier with the monthly average 6 months later. Both rises and further declines are included; a rebound does not necessarily mean recovery to the pre-crash price.

2016-01 WTI crashCompleted · 2016-01+40.9%

Observed 2016-01 → 2016-07 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
2015-10 · 46.22 USD/barrel
Entry monthly average
2016-01 · 31.68 USD/barrel
Ending monthly average
2016-07 · 44.65 USD/barrel

Compares the price in the first month when the monthly average spot price is at least 30% below its level 3 months earlier with the monthly average 6 months later. Both rises and further declines are included; a rebound does not necessarily mean recovery to the pre-crash price.

2014-12 WTI crashCompleted · 2014-12+0.9%

Observed 2014-12 → 2015-06 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
2014-09 · 93.21 USD/barrel
Entry monthly average
2014-12 · 59.29 USD/barrel
Ending monthly average
2015-06 · 59.82 USD/barrel

Compares the price in the first month when the monthly average spot price is at least 30% below its level 3 months earlier with the monthly average 6 months later. Both rises and further declines are included; a rebound does not necessarily mean recovery to the pre-crash price.

2008-10 WTI crashCompleted · 2008-10-35.2%

Observed 2008-10 → 2009-04 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
2008-07 · 133.37 USD/barrel
Entry monthly average
2008-10 · 76.61 USD/barrel
Ending monthly average
2009-04 · 49.65 USD/barrel

Compares the price in the first month when the monthly average spot price is at least 30% below its level 3 months earlier with the monthly average 6 months later. Both rises and further declines are included; a rebound does not necessarily mean recovery to the pre-crash price.

1991-02 WTI crashCompleted · 1991-02+5.9%

Observed 1991-02 → 1991-08 · As of 2026-09-30

Baseline monthly average
1990-11 · 32.33 USD/barrel
Entry monthly average
1991-02 · 20.48 USD/barrel
Ending monthly average
1991-08 · 21.69 USD/barrel

Compares the price in the first month when the monthly average spot price is at least 30% below its level 3 months earlier with the monthly average 6 months later. Both rises and further declines are included; a rebound does not necessarily mean recovery to the pre-crash price.

1986-04 WTI crashExcluded · 1986-04—

Observed 1986-04 → 1986-10 · As of 2026-09-30

Exclusion reason: Condition already met at the beginning of the data: excluded from aggregation because the initial entry cannot be identified

Baseline monthly average
1986-01 · 22.93 USD/barrel
Entry monthly average
1986-04 · 12.84 USD/barrel
Ending monthly average
1986-10 · 14.9 USD/barrel

Compares the price in the first month when the monthly average spot price is at least 30% below its level 3 months earlier with the monthly average 6 months later. Both rises and further declines are included; a rebound does not necessarily mean recovery to the pre-crash price.

How to interpret this

Outcomes can differ even under the same condition. No comparison with a control group over the full period or out-of-sample testing has been performed, so no excess returns or predictive power are claimed. Statistics limited to completed cases may appear optimistic because they exclude long-running uncompleted cases.

These are spot-price changes, not crude-oil futures or ETF returns. Rollovers, collateral interest, costs and exchange rates are excluded. Monthly averages smooth intraday crashes. Do not confuse the negative prices of an expiring futures contract in 2020 with these monthly average spot-price data.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Uses consecutive monthly data from 1986, month 1 through 2026, month 9. Entry occurs only in the first month when the condition changes from false to true. Change is calculated as (monthly average 6 months later / entry monthly average − 1) × 100. Additional entries during tracking and re-entry in the ending month are blocked; the next case begins with a subsequent new condition entry. Cases already meeting the condition at the data boundary are marked separately and excluded from aggregation. Cases with no confirmed end through the latest month are marked as having an unconfirmed end and excluded from completed-case statistics. Month-start dates represent stored months, not actual trading or announcement dates. Monthly averages are known after month-end, so this is not a real-time trading backtest. Thresholds are analytical conditions fixed before reviewing results, not official risk determinations.