ASSETCASTING

How did USD/KRW change in the last two months of the year?

won per 1 dollar · First valid observation → last valid observation in months 11~12 · Since 2007

Total 19 · Completed 19 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2025-11-03 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases9 / 19Negative 9 · Flat 1
Return Median0%Mean -0.2%
Completed outcome range-11% ~ +7.3%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.11.03 · 2025, months 11~12Completed · 2025-11-03+1%

Observed 2025-11-03 → 2025-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-11-03 · 1,430.65 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2025-12-31 · 1,444.55 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2025, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,430.65 to 1,444.55, a spot-quote change of 0.9716%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.11.01 · 2024, months 11~12Completed · 2024-11-01+7.3%

Observed 2024-11-01 → 2024-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-11-01 · 1,376.95 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2024-12-31 · 1,477.86 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2024, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,376.95 to 1,477.86, a spot-quote change of 7.3285%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.11.01 · 2023, months 11~12Completed · 2023-11-01-4.9%

Observed 2023-11-01 → 2023-12-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-11-01 · 1,356.94 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2023-12-29 · 1,290.97 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2023, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,356.94 to 1,290.97, a spot-quote change of -4.8617%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.11.01 · 2022, months 11~12Completed · 2022-11-01-11%

Observed 2022-11-01 → 2022-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-11-01 · 1,416.2 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2022-12-30 · 1,260.18 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2022, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,416.2 to 1,260.18, a spot-quote change of -11.0168%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2021.11.01 · 2021, months 11~12Completed · 2021-11-01+0.9%

Observed 2021-11-01 → 2021-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2021-11-01 · 1,177.73 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2021-12-30 · 1,188.59 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2021, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,177.73 to 1,188.59, a spot-quote change of 0.9221%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.11.02 · 2020, months 11~12Completed · 2020-11-02-4.3%

Observed 2020-11-02 → 2020-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-11-02 · 1,134.62 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2020-12-31 · 1,086.11 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2020, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,134.62 to 1,086.11, a spot-quote change of -4.2754%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2019.11.01 · 2019, months 11~12Completed · 2019-11-01-0.9%

Observed 2019-11-01 → 2019-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2019-11-01 · 1,165.45 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2019-12-31 · 1,155.46 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2019, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,165.45 to 1,155.46, a spot-quote change of -0.8572%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.11.01 · 2018, months 11~12Completed · 2018-11-01-1.2%

Observed 2018-11-01 → 2018-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-11-01 · 1,126.19 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2018-12-31 · 1,112.85 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2018, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,126.19 to 1,112.85, a spot-quote change of -1.1845%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2017.11.01 · 2017, months 11~12Completed · 2017-11-01-3.8%

Observed 2017-11-01 → 2017-12-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2017-11-01 · 1,110.03 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2017-12-29 · 1,067.42 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2017, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,110.03 to 1,067.42, a spot-quote change of -3.8386%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.11.01 · 2016, months 11~12Completed · 2016-11-01+5.3%

Observed 2016-11-01 → 2016-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-11-01 · 1,142.68 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2016-12-30 · 1,203.73 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2016, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,142.68 to 1,203.73, a spot-quote change of 5.3427%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.11.02 · 2015, months 11~12Completed · 2015-11-02+2.5%

Observed 2015-11-02 → 2015-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-11-02 · 1,140.5 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2015-12-31 · 1,169.26 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2015, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,140.5 to 1,169.26, a spot-quote change of 2.5217%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2014.11.03 · 2014, months 11~12Completed · 2014-11-03+1.2%

Observed 2014-11-03 → 2014-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2014-11-03 · 1,077.63 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2014-12-31 · 1,090.89 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2014, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,077.63 to 1,090.89, a spot-quote change of 1.2305%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2013.11.01 · 2013, months 11~12Completed · 2013-11-01-0.5%

Observed 2013-11-01 → 2013-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2013-11-01 · 1,060.91 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2013-12-31 · 1,055.25 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2013, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,060.91 to 1,055.25, a spot-quote change of -0.5335%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.11.01 · 2012, months 11~12Completed · 2012-11-01-2.5%

Observed 2012-11-01 → 2012-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-11-01 · 1,090.27 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2012-12-31 · 1,063.24 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2012, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,090.27 to 1,063.24, a spot-quote change of -2.4792%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.11.01 · 2011, months 11~12Completed · 2011-11-01+3.2%

Observed 2011-11-01 → 2011-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-11-01 · 1,122.05 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2011-12-30 · 1,158.5 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2011, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,122.05 to 1,158.5, a spot-quote change of 3.2485%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.11.01 · 2010, months 11~12Completed · 2010-11-01+1.2%

Observed 2010-11-01 → 2010-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-11-01 · 1,116.73 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2010-12-30 · 1,130.6 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2010, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,116.73 to 1,130.6, a spot-quote change of 1.242%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.11.02 · 2009, months 11~12Completed · 2009-11-02-1.5%

Observed 2009-11-02 → 2009-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-11-02 · 1,181 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2009-12-31 · 1,163.65 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2009, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,181 to 1,163.65, a spot-quote change of -1.4691%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.11.03 · 2008, months 11~12Completed · 2008-11-030%

Observed 2008-11-03 → 2008-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-11-03 · 1,262 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2008-12-31 · 1,262 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2008, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 1,262 to 1,262, a spot-quote change of 0%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.11.01 · 2007, months 11~12Completed · 2007-11-01+3.2%

Observed 2007-11-01 → 2007-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-11-01 · 907 KRW/USD
Ending observation
2007-12-31 · 935.8 KRW/USD
Calendar window
2007, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed won per 1 dollar changed from 907 to 935.8, a spot-quote change of 3.1753%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all annual calendar windows corresponding to months 11~12 between 2007-01-01~2026-10-02. The observation start date is the first valid observation in that window, and the end date is the last valid observation. These are therefore not monthly changes relative to the previous month-end or total returns for an entire quarter; they exclude the first observation day’s change relative to the preceding day. Cases whose calendar end date has not yet arrived are marked ongoing and excluded from means and medians. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are won per 1 dollar, with positive values indicating dollar strength and won weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and won strength. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.