ASSETCASTING

How did USD/JPY change in Q3?

yen per 1 dollar · First valid observation → last valid observation in Q3 · Since 2007

Total 20 · Completed 20 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2026-07-01 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases6 / 20Negative 14 · Flat 0
Return Median-1.3%Mean -1.1%
Completed outcome range-11.3% ~ +8%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2026.07.01 · 2026, Q3Completed · 2026-07-01-3.2%

Observed 2026-07-01 → 2026-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2026-07-01 · 162.41 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2026-09-30 · 157.25 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2026, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 162.41 to 157.25, a spot-quote change of -3.1771%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2025.07.01 · 2025, Q3Completed · 2025-07-01+3.1%

Observed 2025-07-01 → 2025-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-07-01 · 143.58 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2025-09-30 · 147.97 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2025, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 143.58 to 147.97, a spot-quote change of 3.0575%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.07.01 · 2024, Q3Completed · 2024-07-01-11.3%

Observed 2024-07-01 → 2024-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-07-01 · 161.55 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2024-09-30 · 143.25 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2024, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 161.55 to 143.25, a spot-quote change of -11.3278%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.07.03 · 2023, Q3Completed · 2023-07-03+3.4%

Observed 2023-07-03 → 2023-09-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-07-03 · 144.5 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2023-09-29 · 149.43 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2023, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 144.5 to 149.43, a spot-quote change of 3.4118%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.07.01 · 2022, Q3Completed · 2022-07-01+7.1%

Observed 2022-07-01 → 2022-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-07-01 · 135.09 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2022-09-30 · 144.71 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2022, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 135.09 to 144.71, a spot-quote change of 7.1212%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2021.07.01 · 2021, Q3Completed · 2021-07-01-0.1%

Observed 2021-07-01 → 2021-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2021-07-01 · 111.56 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2021-09-30 · 111.5 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2021, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 111.56 to 111.5, a spot-quote change of -0.0538%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.07.01 · 2020, Q3Completed · 2020-07-01-1.8%

Observed 2020-07-01 → 2020-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-07-01 · 107.5 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2020-09-30 · 105.58 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2020, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 107.5 to 105.58, a spot-quote change of -1.786%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2019.07.01 · 2019, Q3Completed · 2019-07-01-0.3%

Observed 2019-07-01 → 2019-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2019-07-01 · 108.42 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2019-09-30 · 108.11 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2019, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 108.42 to 108.11, a spot-quote change of -0.2859%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.07.02 · 2018, Q3Completed · 2018-07-02+2.5%

Observed 2018-07-02 → 2018-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-07-02 · 110.73 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2018-09-28 · 113.48 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2018, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 110.73 to 113.48, a spot-quote change of 2.4835%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2017.07.03 · 2017, Q3Completed · 2017-07-03-0.6%

Observed 2017-07-03 → 2017-09-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2017-07-03 · 113.32 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2017-09-29 · 112.64 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2017, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 113.32 to 112.64, a spot-quote change of -0.6001%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.07.01 · 2016, Q3Completed · 2016-07-01-1.3%

Observed 2016-07-01 → 2016-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-07-01 · 102.55 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2016-09-30 · 101.21 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2016, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 102.55 to 101.21, a spot-quote change of -1.3067%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.07.01 · 2015, Q3Completed · 2015-07-01-2.6%

Observed 2015-07-01 → 2015-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-07-01 · 123.02 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2015-09-30 · 119.81 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2015, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 123.02 to 119.81, a spot-quote change of -2.6093%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2014.07.01 · 2014, Q3Completed · 2014-07-01+8%

Observed 2014-07-01 → 2014-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2014-07-01 · 101.51 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2014-09-30 · 109.66 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2014, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 101.51 to 109.66, a spot-quote change of 8.0288%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2013.07.01 · 2013, Q3Completed · 2013-07-01-1.3%

Observed 2013-07-01 → 2013-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2013-07-01 · 99.62 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2013-09-30 · 98.29 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2013, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 99.62 to 98.29, a spot-quote change of -1.3351%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.07.02 · 2012, Q3Completed · 2012-07-02-1.9%

Observed 2012-07-02 → 2012-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-07-02 · 79.42 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2012-09-28 · 77.92 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2012, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 79.42 to 77.92, a spot-quote change of -1.8887%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.07.01 · 2011, Q3Completed · 2011-07-01-4.7%

Observed 2011-07-01 → 2011-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-07-01 · 80.81 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2011-09-30 · 77.04 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2011, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 80.81 to 77.04, a spot-quote change of -4.6653%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.07.01 · 2010, Q3Completed · 2010-07-01-4.4%

Observed 2010-07-01 → 2010-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-07-01 · 87.42 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2010-09-30 · 83.53 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2010, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 87.42 to 83.53, a spot-quote change of -4.4498%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.07.01 · 2009, Q3Completed · 2009-07-01-7.2%

Observed 2009-07-01 → 2009-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-07-01 · 96.41 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2009-09-30 · 89.49 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2009, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 96.41 to 89.49, a spot-quote change of -7.1777%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.07.01 · 2008, Q3Completed · 2008-07-01+0.2%

Observed 2008-07-01 → 2008-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-07-01 · 105.73 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2008-09-30 · 105.94 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2008, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 105.73 to 105.94, a spot-quote change of 0.1986%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.07.02 · 2007, Q3Completed · 2007-07-02-6%

Observed 2007-07-02 → 2007-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-07-02 · 122.32 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2007-09-28 · 114.97 JPY/USD
Calendar window
2007, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 122.32 to 114.97, a spot-quote change of -6.0088%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all annual calendar windows corresponding to Q3 between 2007-01-01~2026-10-02. The observation start date is the first valid observation in that window, and the end date is the last valid observation. These are therefore not monthly changes relative to the previous month-end or total returns for an entire quarter; they exclude the first observation day’s change relative to the preceding day. Cases whose calendar end date has not yet arrived are marked ongoing and excluded from means and medians. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are yen per 1 dollar, with positive values indicating dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.