ASSETCASTING

What followed a 5% one-month fall in USD/JPY?

yen per 1 dollar · New downward crossing of -5% over the preceding 21 valid observations → next 21 valid observations

Total 27 · Completed 27 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2025-04-17 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases18 / 27Negative 9 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.8%Mean +1.1%
Completed outcome range-5.5% ~ +6.3%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.04.17 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2025-04-17+2.6%

Observed 2025-04-17 → 2025-05-16 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-04-17 · 142.33 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2025-05-16 · 146.02 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.126% (2025-03-19 → 2025-04-17)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 142.33 to 146.02, a spot-quote change of 2.5926%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.09.16 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2024-09-16+6.3%

Observed 2024-09-16 → 2024-10-16 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-09-16 · 140.79 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2024-10-16 · 149.71 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.453% (2024-08-15 → 2024-09-16)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 140.79 to 149.71, a spot-quote change of 6.3357%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.07.31 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2024-07-31-3.6%

Observed 2024-07-31 → 2024-08-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-07-31 · 150.38 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2024-08-29 · 144.98 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.9143% (2024-07-01 → 2024-07-31)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 150.38 to 144.98, a spot-quote change of -3.5909%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.12.14 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2023-12-14+4.8%

Observed 2023-12-14 → 2024-01-17 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-12-14 · 141.53 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2024-01-17 · 148.39 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.1161% (2023-11-14 → 2023-12-14)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 141.53 to 148.39, a spot-quote change of 4.847%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.12.20 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2022-12-20-0.3%

Observed 2022-12-20 → 2023-01-23 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-12-20 · 131.08 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2023-01-23 · 130.69 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.3915% (2022-11-18 → 2022-12-20)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 131.08 to 130.69, a spot-quote change of -0.2975%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.11.15 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2022-11-15-1%

Observed 2022-11-15 → 2022-12-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-11-15 · 139.36 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2022-12-15 · 137.92 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.1296% (2022-10-14 → 2022-11-15)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 139.36 to 137.92, a spot-quote change of -1.0333%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.03.09 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2020-03-09+6.3%

Observed 2020-03-09 → 2020-04-07 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-03-09 · 102.52 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2020-04-07 · 108.97 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.7067% (2020-02-06 → 2020-03-09)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 102.52 to 108.97, a spot-quote change of 6.2915%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.08.16 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-08-16+2%

Observed 2016-08-16 → 2016-09-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-08-16 · 100.28 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2016-09-15 · 102.24 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.3962% (2016-07-18 → 2016-08-16)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 100.28 to 102.24, a spot-quote change of 1.9545%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.06.21 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-06-21+1.4%

Observed 2016-06-21 → 2016-07-21 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-06-21 · 104.56 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2016-07-21 · 105.98 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.3927% (2016-05-20 → 2016-06-21)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 104.56 to 105.98, a spot-quote change of 1.3581%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.04.11 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-04-11+1.2%

Observed 2016-04-11 → 2016-05-10 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-04-11 · 107.96 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2016-05-10 · 109.22 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.015% (2016-03-11 → 2016-04-11)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 107.96 to 109.22, a spot-quote change of 1.1671%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.02.23 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-02-23+0.4%

Observed 2016-02-23 → 2016-03-23 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-02-23 · 112.17 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2016-03-23 · 112.63 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.2378% (2016-01-22 → 2016-02-23)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 112.17 to 112.63, a spot-quote change of 0.4101%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.01.20 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-01-20-3.4%

Observed 2016-01-20 → 2016-02-19 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-01-20 · 116.38 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2016-02-19 · 112.42 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.1894% (2015-12-17 → 2016-01-20)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 116.38 to 112.42, a spot-quote change of -3.4026%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2013.06.12 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2013-06-12+4.2%

Observed 2013-06-12 → 2013-07-12 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2013-06-12 · 95.36 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2013-07-12 · 99.39 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.3629% (2013-05-13 → 2013-06-12)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 95.36 to 99.39, a spot-quote change of 4.2261%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.08.03 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2011-08-03-0.1%

Observed 2011-08-03 → 2011-09-01 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-08-03 · 76.87 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2011-09-01 · 76.81 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.2625% (2011-07-05 → 2011-08-03)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 76.87 to 76.81, a spot-quote change of -0.0781%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.05.05 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2011-05-05+0.1%

Observed 2011-05-05 → 2011-06-06 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-05-05 · 80.12 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2011-06-06 · 80.19 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.0286% (2011-04-06 → 2011-05-05)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 80.12 to 80.19, a spot-quote change of 0.0874%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.03.17 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2011-03-17+5.6%

Observed 2011-03-17 → 2011-04-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-03-17 · 78.74 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2011-04-15 · 83.13 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.027% (2011-02-15 → 2011-03-17)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 78.74 to 83.13, a spot-quote change of 5.5753%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.10.15 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2010-10-15+2.6%

Observed 2010-10-15 → 2010-11-16 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-10-15 · 81.32 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2010-11-16 · 83.41 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.0333% (2010-09-15 → 2010-10-15)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 81.32 to 83.41, a spot-quote change of 2.5701%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.07.01 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2010-07-01-1.1%

Observed 2010-07-01 → 2010-08-02 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-07-01 · 87.42 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2010-08-02 · 86.42 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.1947% (2010-06-02 → 2010-07-01)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 87.42 to 86.42, a spot-quote change of -1.1439%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.11.27 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-11-27+5.8%

Observed 2009-11-27 → 2009-12-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-11-27 · 86.87 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2009-12-29 · 91.95 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.6171% (2009-10-27 → 2009-11-27)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 86.87 to 91.95, a spot-quote change of 5.8478%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.09.08 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-09-08-3.7%

Observed 2009-09-08 → 2009-10-07 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-09-08 · 92.21 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2009-10-07 · 88.76 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.5709% (2009-08-07 → 2009-09-08)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 92.21 to 88.76, a spot-quote change of -3.7415%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.07.09 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-07-09+5.2%

Observed 2009-07-09 → 2009-08-07 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-07-09 · 92.79 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2009-08-07 · 97.65 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.4418% (2009-06-10 → 2009-07-09)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 92.79 to 97.65, a spot-quote change of 5.2376%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.11.13 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-11-13-5.5%

Observed 2008-11-13 → 2008-12-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-11-13 · 95.95 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2008-12-15 · 90.68 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.0879% (2008-10-14 → 2008-11-13)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 95.95 to 90.68, a spot-quote change of -5.4924%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.10.06 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-10-06-2.3%

Observed 2008-10-06 → 2008-11-05 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-10-06 · 101.26 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2008-11-05 · 98.95 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.3291% (2008-09-05 → 2008-10-06)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 101.26 to 98.95, a spot-quote change of -2.2813%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.03.13 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-03-13+0.5%

Observed 2008-03-13 → 2008-04-11 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-03-13 · 100.58 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2008-04-11 · 101.09 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.3675% (2008-02-12 → 2008-03-13)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 100.58 to 101.09, a spot-quote change of 0.5071%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.01.16 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-01-16+0.4%

Observed 2008-01-16 → 2008-02-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-01-16 · 107.27 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2008-02-15 · 107.67 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.3639% (2007-12-14 → 2008-01-16)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 107.27 to 107.67, a spot-quote change of 0.3729%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.11.09 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2007-11-09+0.8%

Observed 2007-11-09 → 2007-12-11 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-11-09 · 110.9 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2007-12-11 · 111.77 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-5.7854% (2007-10-11 → 2007-11-09)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 110.9 to 111.77, a spot-quote change of 0.7845%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.08.16 -5% condition confirmedCompleted · 2007-08-16+1.1%

Observed 2007-08-16 → 2007-09-14 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-08-16 · 114.03 JPY/USD
Ending observation
2007-09-14 · 115.31 JPY/USD
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-6.4024% (2007-07-18 → 2007-08-16)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -5% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed yen per 1 dollar changed from 114.03 to 115.31, a spot-quote change of 1.1225%. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Examines valid daily observations from 2007-01-01~2026-10-02 in sequence, using 2006 data for preliminary calculations. The condition observation date is the first crossing when the change versus 21 valid observations earlier reaches -5% or lower. The same condition must not have been met on the preceding day. After selecting a case, no other case is selected from that date through the next 21 valid observations; only a new subsequent crossing is selected. All cases meeting this rule are included, without selecting by the direction of the outcome. The endpoint of the next 21 valid observations is not used to select the condition. The 21 observations represent roughly a month, not a calendar month; cases with insufficient follow-up observations remain ongoing. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are yen per 1 dollar, with positive values indicating dollar strength and yen weakness; negative values indicate dollar weakness and yen strength. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.