ASSETCASTING

When were WTI prices at least 50% above their level 1 year earlier?

WTI spot · Monthly average price up at least 50% year-over-year

Total 14 · Completed 13 · Ongoing 1 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2026-09 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases13 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median3 monthsMean 4.3 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 16 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2026.09 start · Ongoing in the available dataOngoing · 2026-09To date1 months

Observed 2026-09 → End unconfirmed · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2026-09
Indicator at entry
52.14%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2026-09
Last indicator meeting the condition
52.14%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The condition continued through source data for 2026-09, with 1 months observed. Persistence afterward is unknown, and the case is excluded from final-duration statistics.

2026.04 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2026-042 months

Observed 2026-04 → 2026-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2026-04
Indicator at entry
57.88%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2026-05
Last indicator meeting the condition
64.28%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2026-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2021.03 start · 16 monthsCompleted · 2021-0316 months

Observed 2021-03 → 2022-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2021-03
Indicator at entry
113.39%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2022-06
Last indicator meeting the condition
60.89%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 16 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2022-07 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2018.06 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2018-062 months

Observed 2018-06 → 2018-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2018-06
Indicator at entry
50.22%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2018-07
Last indicator meeting the condition
52.22%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2018-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2017.01 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2017-012 months

Observed 2017-01 → 2017-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2017-01
Indicator at entry
65.72%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2017-02
Last indicator meeting the condition
76.35%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2017-03 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2009.12 start · 5 monthsCompleted · 2009-125 months

Observed 2009-12 → 2010-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2009-12
Indicator at entry
81.10%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2010-04
Last indicator meeting the condition
69.77%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 5 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2010-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2008.01 start · 8 monthsCompleted · 2008-018 months

Observed 2008-01 → 2008-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2008-01
Indicator at entry
70.56%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2008-08
Last indicator meeting the condition
61.24%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 8 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2008-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2007.11 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2007-111 months

Observed 2007-11 → 2007-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2007-11
Indicator at entry
60.41%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2007-11
Last indicator meeting the condition
60.41%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2007-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2004.09 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2004-093 months

Observed 2004-09 → 2004-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2004-09
Indicator at entry
62.27%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2004-11
Last indicator meeting the condition
55.80%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 3 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2004-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2002.12 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2002-123 months

Observed 2002-12 → 2003-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2002-12
Indicator at entry
51.93%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2003-02
Last indicator meeting the condition
72.92%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 3 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2003-03 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2000.05 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2000-052 months

Observed 2000-05 → 2000-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2000-05
Indicator at entry
62.47%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2000-06
Last indicator meeting the condition
77.57%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2000-07 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1999.08 start · 8 monthsCompleted · 1999-088 months

Observed 1999-08 → 2000-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1999-08
Indicator at entry
57.98%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2000-03
Last indicator meeting the condition
103.27%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 8 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2000-04 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1990.09 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 1990-093 months

Observed 1990-09 → 1990-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1990-09
Indicator at entry
71.06%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1990-11
Last indicator meeting the condition
62.79%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 3 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1990-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1987.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1987-071 months

Observed 1987-07 → 1987-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1987-07
Indicator at entry
84.12%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1987-07
Last indicator meeting the condition
84.12%
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1987-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event. Base effects from low prices in the previous year are included in high rates of change. Cases are not selectively chosen according to causes such as supply, demand or war.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the year-over-year change in the monthly average WTI spot price (MCOILWTICO) is at or above 50%. The analysis runs from 1987-01 through the latest verified observation, 2026-09. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Annual change is calculated as (current-month value/value 12 months earlier−1)×100. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.