How long did US unemployment-rate spells at or above 6% last?

United States · Unemployment rate at or above 6% · Consecutive spell duration

Total 17 · Completed 17 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2020-04 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases17 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included

Duration Median1 monthsMean 17.1 months

Completed outcome range1 months ~ 93 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2020.04 start · 13 monthsCompleted · 2020-0413 months

Observed 2020-04 → 2021-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2020-04
Indicator at entry: 14.80%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2021-04
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.10%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 13 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2021-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2008.08 start · 73 monthsCompleted · 2008-0873 months

Observed 2008-08 → 2014-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2008-08
Indicator at entry: 6.10%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2014-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.10%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 73 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2014-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2003.04 start · 7 monthsCompleted · 2003-047 months

Observed 2003-04 → 2003-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2003-04
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2003-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 7 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2003-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2002.12 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2002-121 months

Observed 2002-12 → 2003-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2002-12
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2002-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2003-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1990.11 start · 46 monthsCompleted · 1990-1146 months

Observed 1990-11 → 1994-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1990-11
Indicator at entry: 6.20%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1994-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 46 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1994-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1987.10 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1987-101 months

Observed 1987-10 → 1987-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1987-10
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1987-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1987-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1979.12 start · 93 monthsCompleted · 1979-1293 months

Observed 1979-12 → 1987-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1979-12
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1987-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 93 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1987-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1979.10 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1979-101 months

Observed 1979-10 → 1979-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1979-10
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1979-10
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1979-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1979.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1979-081 months

Observed 1979-08 → 1979-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1979-08
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1979-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1979-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1978.12 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1978-121 months

Observed 1978-12 → 1979-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1978-12
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1978-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1979-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1978.09 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1978-091 months

Observed 1978-09 → 1978-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1978-09
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1978-09
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1978-10 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1978.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1978-071 months

Observed 1978-07 → 1978-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1978-07
Indicator at entry: 6.20%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1978-07
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.20%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1978-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1974.10 start · 44 monthsCompleted · 1974-1044 months

Observed 1974-10 → 1978-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1974-10
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1978-05
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 44 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1978-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1971.11 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1971-112 months

Observed 1971-11 → 1972-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1971-11
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1971-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1972-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1971.07 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 1971-073 months

Observed 1971-07 → 1971-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1971-07
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1971-09
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 3 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1971-10 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1971.03 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1971-031 months

Observed 1971-03 → 1971-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1971-03
Indicator at entry: 6.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1971-03
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.00%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1971-04 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1970.12 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1970-121 months

Observed 1970-12 → 1971-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1970-12
Indicator at entry: 6.10%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1970-12
Last indicator meeting the condition: 6.10%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1971-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (UNRATE) is at or above 6%. The analysis runs from 1970-01 through the latest verified observation, 2026-09. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.

Unemployment Rate ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · UNRATE; Percent; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained