ASSETCASTING

How long did US recessions last?

United States · Business-cycle peaks since 1976 · Peak → next trough

Total 6 · Completed 6 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2020-02 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases6 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median8 monthsMean 9.7 months
Completed outcome range2 months ~ 18 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2020.02–2020.04 economic contractionCompleted · 2020-022 months

Observed 2020-02 → 2020-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle peak
2020.02
Business-cycle trough
2020.04
Duration
2 months

The month difference between the NBER peak and trough is 2 months. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak, and the last month is the trough month. These dates are determined after the fact and do not represent stock-market decline or recovery periods.

COVID19 spread and economic lockdowns →
2007.12–2009.06 economic contractionCompleted · 2007-1218 months

Observed 2007-12 → 2009-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle peak
2007.12
Business-cycle trough
2009.06
Duration
18 months

The month difference between the NBER peak and trough is 18 months. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak, and the last month is the trough month. These dates are determined after the fact and do not represent stock-market decline or recovery periods.

Global financial crisis and Great Recession →
2001.03–2001.11 economic contractionCompleted · 2001-038 months

Observed 2001-03 → 2001-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle peak
2001.03
Business-cycle trough
2001.11
Duration
8 months

The month difference between the NBER peak and trough is 8 months. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak, and the last month is the trough month. These dates are determined after the fact and do not represent stock-market decline or recovery periods.

Dot-com bubble collapse →
1990.07–1991.03 economic contractionCompleted · 1990-078 months

Observed 1990-07 → 1991-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle peak
1990.07
Business-cycle trough
1991.03
Duration
8 months

The month difference between the NBER peak and trough is 8 months. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak, and the last month is the trough month. These dates are determined after the fact and do not represent stock-market decline or recovery periods.

1981.07–1982.11 economic contractionCompleted · 1981-0716 months

Observed 1981-07 → 1982-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle peak
1981.07
Business-cycle trough
1982.11
Duration
16 months

The month difference between the NBER peak and trough is 16 months. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak, and the last month is the trough month. These dates are determined after the fact and do not represent stock-market decline or recovery periods.

US high rates and recession →
1980.01–1980.07 economic contractionCompleted · 1980-016 months

Observed 1980-01 → 1980-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle peak
1980.01
Business-cycle trough
1980.07
Duration
6 months

The month difference between the NBER peak and trough is 6 months. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak, and the last month is the trough month. These dates are determined after the fact and do not represent stock-market decline or recovery periods.

US high rates and recession →

How to interpret this

The 6 contractions varied widely, from 2~18 months, with a median of 8 months. Short contractions such as that in 2020 show that duration alone does not indicate the magnitude of an economic shock. The mean of about 9.7 months merely summarizes this sample; it does not identify when the next recession will end.

NBER business-cycle determinations are made after the fact. Their dates are not treated as signals already known at the time. Economy-wide contraction and expansion periods differ from stock-index decline and recovery periods. Means and medians calculated from a small number of cases are not expected durations for the next event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all confirmed contractions in the NBER chronology with peaks since 1976-01. Each peak-to-next-trough interval counts as a case, with its month difference checked against the original table’s Contraction duration. The 1980 and 1981 contractions count separately following NBER’s distinct determinations. Dates are known only by month and are normalized to day 1 for storage. The actual first contraction month is the month after the peak; the peak month itself is not counted as the first contraction month. The sample size does not guarantee statistical independence or predictive power.