When was US nonfarm employment lower than 1 year earlier?

United States · Year-over-year decline in nonfarm employment · Consecutive spell duration

Total 9 · Completed 9 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2020-04 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases9 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included

Duration Median12 monthsMean 14 months

Completed outcome range1 months ~ 29 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2020.04 start · 12 monthsCompleted · 2020-0412 months

Observed 2020-04 → 2021-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2020-04
Indicator at entry: -13.39%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2021-03
Last indicator meeting the condition: -4.42%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 12 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2021-04 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2008.05 start · 28 monthsCompleted · 2008-0528 months

Observed 2008-05 → 2010-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2008-05
Indicator at entry: -0.10%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2010-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.04%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 28 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2010-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

2001.07 start · 29 monthsCompleted · 2001-0729 months

Observed 2001-07 → 2003-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 2001-07
Indicator at entry: -0.04%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 2003-11
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.10%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 29 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2003-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1991.01 start · 15 monthsCompleted · 1991-0115 months

Observed 1991-01 → 1992-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1991-01
Indicator at entry: -0.13%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1992-03
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.19%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 15 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1992-04 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1981.12 start · 18 monthsCompleted · 1981-1218 months

Observed 1981-12 → 1983-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1981-12
Indicator at entry: -0.05%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1983-05
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.51%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 18 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1983-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1980.06 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 1980-064 months

Observed 1980-06 → 1980-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1980-06
Indicator at entry: -0.01%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1980-09
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.13%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 4 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1980-10 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1974.12 start · 12 monthsCompleted · 1974-1212 months

Observed 1974-12 → 1975-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1974-12
Indicator at entry: -0.49%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1975-11
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.74%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 12 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1975-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1970.10 start · 7 monthsCompleted · 1970-107 months

Observed 1970-10 → 1971-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1970-10
Indicator at entry: -0.84%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1971-04
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.44%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 7 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1971-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

1970.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1970-081 months

Observed 1970-08 → 1970-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month: 1970-08
Indicator at entry: -0.10%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition: 1970-08
Last indicator meeting the condition: -0.10%
Latest source-data month: 2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1970-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the year-over-year change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment (PAYEMS) is below 0%. The analysis runs from 1970-01 through the latest verified observation, 2026-09. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Annual change is calculated as (current-month value/value 12 months earlier−1)×100. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.

All Employees, Total Nonfarm ↗U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Checked 2026-10-09 · PAYEMS; Thousands of persons; monthly; seasonally adjusted; observations 1970-01-01~2026-09-01; full original-table snapshot retained