ASSETCASTING

How long did US economic expansions last?

United States · Business-cycle troughs since 1976 · Trough → next peak

Total 6 · Completed 5 · Ongoing 1 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2020-04 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases5 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median92 monthsMean 85 months
Completed outcome range12 months ~ 128 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

Since 2020.04 · End unconfirmedEnd unconfirmed · 2020-04—

Observed 2020-04 → End unconfirmed · As of 2026-10-09

Last confirmed trough
2020.04
Chronology check date
2026.10.09
Next peak
Unconfirmed · Whether the expansion continues today is unknown

In the NBER chronology checked on 2026-10-09, the last confirmed trough is 2020, month 4 and the next peak has not been announced. The absence of an ex-post NBER determination does not by itself confirm that expansion has continued to the present. Therefore, elapsed duration is not calculated and the case is excluded from completed-case means and medians.

COVID19 spread and economic lockdowns →
2009.06–2020.02 economic expansionCompleted · 2009-06128 months

Observed 2009-06 → 2020-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle trough
2009.06
Next business-cycle peak
2020.02
Duration
128 months

The month difference from the NBER trough to the next peak is 128 months. The first month of expansion is the month after the trough. Expansion duration alone cannot predict the timing of the next recession.

Global financial crisis and Great Recession →
2001.11–2007.12 economic expansionCompleted · 2001-1173 months

Observed 2001-11 → 2007-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle trough
2001.11
Next business-cycle peak
2007.12
Duration
73 months

The month difference from the NBER trough to the next peak is 73 months. The first month of expansion is the month after the trough. Expansion duration alone cannot predict the timing of the next recession.

1991.03–2001.03 economic expansionCompleted · 1991-03120 months

Observed 1991-03 → 2001-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle trough
1991.03
Next business-cycle peak
2001.03
Duration
120 months

The month difference from the NBER trough to the next peak is 120 months. The first month of expansion is the month after the trough. Expansion duration alone cannot predict the timing of the next recession.

Dot-com bubble collapse →
1982.11–1990.07 economic expansionCompleted · 1982-1192 months

Observed 1982-11 → 1990-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle trough
1982.11
Next business-cycle peak
1990.07
Duration
92 months

The month difference from the NBER trough to the next peak is 92 months. The first month of expansion is the month after the trough. Expansion duration alone cannot predict the timing of the next recession.

1980.07–1981.07 economic expansionCompleted · 1980-0712 months

Observed 1980-07 → 1981-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Business-cycle trough
1980.07
Next business-cycle peak
1981.07
Duration
12 months

The month difference from the NBER trough to the next peak is 12 months. The first month of expansion is the month after the trough. Expansion duration alone cannot predict the timing of the next recession.

US high rates and recession →

How to interpret this

The 5 completed expansions ranged from 12~128 months, with a median of 92 months and a mean of 85 months. They did not end at regular intervals like a simple cycle. The case with an unconfirmed end is excluded from this average, so it must not be interpreted as the lifespan or remaining duration of the current expansion.

NBER business-cycle determinations are made after the fact. Their dates are not treated as signals already known at the time. Economy-wide contraction and expansion periods differ from stock-index decline and recovery periods. Means and medians calculated from a small number of cases are not expected durations for the next event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all expansion spells in the NBER chronology with troughs since 1976-01. For completed spells, the month difference between the trough and next peak was checked against the original table’s Expansion value. Monthly dates are normalized to day 1 for storage; the actual first month of expansion is the month after the trough. The spell after the last confirmed trough is separated as having an unconfirmed end. The chronology was checked on 2026-10-09, but that date does not confirm that the current expansion continues, so elapsed duration is not provided. Means and medians use only the 5 completed cases and must be interpreted with the limitation that cases lacking a confirmed end are excluded.