ASSETCASTING

How long did US consumer-price inflation at or above 4% persist?

United States · Consumer-price inflation at or above 4% year-over-year · Consecutive spell duration

Total 13 · Completed 12 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2026-05 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases12 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median4.5 monthsMean 17.8 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 117 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2026.05 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2026-051 months

Observed 2026-05 → 2026-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2026-05
Indicator at entry
4.17%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2026-05
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.17%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2026-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2021.04 start · 26 monthsCompleted · 2021-0426 months

Observed 2021-04 → 2023-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2021-04
Indicator at entry
4.13%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2023-05
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.13%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 26 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2023-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2008.05 start · 5 monthsCompleted · 2008-055 months

Observed 2008-05 → 2008-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2008-05
Indicator at entry
4.09%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2008-09
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.95%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 5 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2008-10 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2007.11 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 2007-114 months

Observed 2007-11 → 2008-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2007-11
Indicator at entry
4.37%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2008-02
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.14%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 4 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2008-03 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2006.06 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2006-062 months

Observed 2006-06 → 2006-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2006-06
Indicator at entry
4.18%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2006-07
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.10%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2006-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2006.01 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2006-011 months

Observed 2006-01 → 2006-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2006-01
Indicator at entry
4.02%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2006-01
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.02%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2006-02 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2005.09 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2005-092 months

Observed 2005-09 → 2005-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2005-09
Indicator at entry
4.74%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2005-10
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.35%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2005-11 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1988.07 start · 37 monthsCompleted · 1988-0737 months

Observed 1988-07 → 1991-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1988-07
Indicator at entry
4.13%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1991-07
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.37%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 37 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1991-08 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1987.08 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 1987-086 months

Observed 1987-08 → 1988-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1987-08
Indicator at entry
4.29%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1988-01
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.13%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 6 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1988-02 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1984.01 start · 12 monthsCompleted · 1984-0112 months

Observed 1984-01 → 1985-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1984-01
Indicator at entry
4.29%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1984-12
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.04%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 12 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1985-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1983.04 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1983-041 months

Observed 1983-04 → 1983-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1983-04
Indicator at entry
4.00%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1983-04
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.00%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1983-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1973.03 start · 117 monthsCompleted · 1973-03117 months

Observed 1973-03 → 1982-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1973-03
Indicator at entry
4.83%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1982-11
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.48%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The 117 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1982-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1970.01 start · Start and end uncertainExcluded · 1970-01—

Observed 1970-01 → 1971-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Exclusion reason: The spell began before the analysis start date, so its partial duration within the analysis window is not counted as a completed case.

Condition entry month
1970-01
Indicator at entry
6.16%
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1971-09
Last indicator meeting the condition
4.08%
Latest source-data month
2026-08

The spell began before the analysis start date, so its partial duration within the analysis window is not counted as a completed case.

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted all-items CPI (CPIAUCSL) is at or above 4%. The analysis runs from 1970-01 through the latest verified observation, 2026-08. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Annual change is calculated as (current-month value/value 12 months earlier−1)×100. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.