ASSETCASTING

How many months did US yield-curve inversions last?

United States · Monthly average 10-year–3-month yield spread below 0%p

Total 10 · Completed 9 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2025-06 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases9 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median3 monthsMean 6.3 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 25 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.06 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2025-063 months

Observed 2025-06 → 2025-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2025-06
Indicator at entry
-0.04%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2025-08
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.04%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 3 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2025-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2025.03 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2025-032 months

Observed 2025-03 → 2025-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2025-03
Indicator at entry
-0.06%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2025-04
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.04%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2025-05 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2022.11 start · 25 monthsCompleted · 2022-1125 months

Observed 2022-11 → 2024-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2022-11
Indicator at entry
-0.43%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2024-11
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.26%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 25 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2024-12 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2020.02 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2020-021 months

Observed 2020-02 → 2020-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2020-02
Indicator at entry
-0.04%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2020-02
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.04%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 1 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2020-03 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2019.06 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 2019-064 months

Observed 2019-06 → 2019-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2019-06
Indicator at entry
-0.15%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2019-09
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.23%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 4 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2019-10 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2006.08 start · 10 monthsCompleted · 2006-0810 months

Observed 2006-08 → 2007-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2006-08
Indicator at entry
-0.21%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2007-05
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.12%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 10 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2007-06 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

2000.07 start · 7 monthsCompleted · 2000-077 months

Observed 2000-07 → 2001-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
2000-07
Indicator at entry
-0.09%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
2001-01
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.13%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 7 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 2001-02 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1989.11 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1989-112 months

Observed 1989-11 → 1990-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1989-11
Indicator at entry
-0.07%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1989-12
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.04%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 2 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1990-01 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1989.06 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 1989-063 months

Observed 1989-06 → 1989-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Condition entry month
1989-06
Indicator at entry
-0.15%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1989-08
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.06%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The 3 consecutive months meeting the condition were grouped into a single case. 1989-09 is the first month that no longer meets the condition and is excluded from the duration. Threshold checks used unrounded source data.

1981.09 start · Start and end uncertainExcluded · 1981-09—

Observed 1981-09 → 1981-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Exclusion reason: The actual entry cannot be identified because the previous month’s source data or historical values needed for the calculation are unavailable.

Condition entry month
1981-09
Indicator at entry
-0.29%p
Last confirmed month meeting the condition
1981-09
Last indicator meeting the condition
-0.29%p
Latest source-data month
2026-09

The actual entry cannot be identified because the previous month’s source data or historical values needed for the calculation are unavailable.

How to interpret this

These figures describe how long the indicator condition persisted. Means and medians are neither predictions of when the next phase will end nor investment recommendations. They are not causal analyses controlling for monetary and fiscal institutions and economic structures across different eras.

The thresholds are fixed analytical rules for comparison, not official criteria for determining economic conditions. Even temporally separated spells are not guaranteed to be statistically independent. Source data may be revised afterward, and using the current vintage can differ from signals available in real time. Monthly averaging and seasonal adjustment follow each source. The first day of the month is a normalized representation of monthly data, not the actual date of an event. This is monthly average inversion, not intraday or daily inversion. Analysis covers only the period since 1981, month 9 when both maturity series exist, so earlier inversions are excluded.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the monthly average 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield (GS10) minus the monthly average 3-month constant-maturity Treasury yield (GS3M) is below 0%p. The analysis runs from 1981-09 through the latest verified observation, 2026-09. All consecutive months meeting the same condition form a single case, with the first month that no longer meets it serving as the ending boundary. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference between the entry and ending months. Spells already meeting the condition at the first observation, or with boundaries obscured by missing data, remain excluded cases. Spells meeting the condition for only a single month are not omitted. Elapsed duration for ongoing cases counts months meeting the condition through the latest source data and is excluded from the final average. The source data were downloaded from FRED’s official full observation table on 2026-10-09; later observations were neither interpolated nor estimated.