ASSETCASTING

Santa Claus rally: did the 7 trading days around year-end really rise?

The last 5 trading days of December (month 12) and the first 2 trading days of January (month 1) each year, totaling 7 trading days

Total 10 · Completed 10 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2025-12-24 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases7 / 10Negative 3 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.6%Mean +0.5%
Completed outcome range-0.9% ~ +1.4%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2025–2026 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2025-12-24-0.1%

Observed 2025-12-24 → 2026-01-05 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2025-12-24 ~ 2026-01-05, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2025-12-23 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is -0.11%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2024–2025 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2024-12-24-0.5%

Observed 2024-12-24 → 2025-01-03 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2024-12-24 ~ 2025-01-03, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2024-12-23 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is -0.53%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2023–2024 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2023-12-22-0.9%

Observed 2023-12-22 → 2024-01-03 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2023-12-22 ~ 2024-01-03, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2023-12-21 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is -0.88%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2022–2023 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2022-12-23+0.8%

Observed 2022-12-23 → 2023-01-04 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2022-12-23 ~ 2023-01-04, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2022-12-22 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 0.80%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2021–2022 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2021-12-27+1.4%

Observed 2021-12-27 → 2022-01-04 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2021-12-27 ~ 2022-01-04, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2021-12-23 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 1.43%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2020–2021 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2020-12-24+1%

Observed 2020-12-24 → 2021-01-05 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2020-12-24 ~ 2021-01-05, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2020-12-23 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 1.00%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2019–2020 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2019-12-24+0.3%

Observed 2019-12-24 → 2020-01-03 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2019-12-24 ~ 2020-01-03, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2019-12-23 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 0.34%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2018–2019 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2018-12-24+1.3%

Observed 2018-12-24 → 2019-01-03 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2018-12-24 ~ 2019-01-03, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2018-12-21 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 1.29%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2017–2018 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2017-12-22+1.1%

Observed 2017-12-22 → 2018-01-03 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2017-12-22 ~ 2018-01-03, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2017-12-21 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 1.06%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded
2016–2017 year-end and New YearCompleted · 2016-12-23+0.4%

Observed 2016-12-23 → 2017-01-04 · As of 2026-10-08

Observation window
2016-12-23 ~ 2017-01-04, 7 trading days
Calculation baseline date
Relative to the 2016-12-22 close (including the first-day movement)

The price change over 7 trading days is 0.43%. Dividends and costs are excluded; this result alone does not predict the next year’s direction.

  • S&P 500 daily close (SP500), FRED ↗S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · 2016-10-10 through 2026-10-08; price index, dividends excluded

How to interpret this

This compares seasonal windows without selecting only years that rose. No statistical tests against ordinary 7-trading-day windows or out-of-sample validation have been performed, so no excess returns or predictive power are claimed.

Only the latest 10 windows are included; these are not long-run statistics since 1950. Changes in the price index exclude dividends, transaction costs, taxes and exchange rates. The sample is small, and the condition does not establish the cause of a rise. These are analytical results calculated by ASSETCASTING from the underlying data, not statistics prepared or endorsed by S&P Dow Jones Indices or FRED. Rights to the underlying index belong to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Conditions, methodology and sources

All 10 windows beginning in 2016–2025 are included. The calculation is (closing price on the second trading day of the new year / closing price on the trading day immediately preceding the fifth-to-last trading day of the year − 1) × 100. Using the preceding close rather than the first-day close includes the first-day movement. Market holidays are not interpolated, and shortened sessions count as trading days. The observation date is the actual first trading day. The year is the year containing December (month 12). The source is revised data provided by FRED through 2026-10-08. The late 2026 window has not yet begun and is not included.