ASSETCASTING

How long did spells of elevated debt relative to economic size last?

Japan, Korea, United States and China · Private non-financial sector credit/GDP ratio − long-term trend > 10%p · Consecutive quarters

Total 14 · Completed 14 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2020 Q2 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases14 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median5 quartersMean 7.4 quarters
Completed outcome range1 quarters ~ 19 quartersMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

Korea · 2020 Q2Completed · 2020 Q211 quarters

Observed 2020 Q2 → 2023 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2020 Q2 ~ 2022 Q4 · 11 quarters
Gap at entry
11.27%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2023 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Korea met the criterion for 11 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2023 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

Japan · 2019 Q3Completed · 2019 Q319 quarters

Observed 2019 Q3 → 2024 Q2 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2019 Q3 ~ 2024 Q1 · 19 quarters
Gap at entry
10.50%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2024 Q2
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Japan met the criterion for 19 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2024 Q2; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

China · 2012 Q3Completed · 2012 Q319 quarters

Observed 2012 Q3 → 2017 Q2 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2012 Q3 ~ 2017 Q1 · 19 quarters
Gap at entry
10.92%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2017 Q2
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

China met the criterion for 19 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2017 Q2; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

China · 2009 Q3Completed · 2009 Q36 quarters

Observed 2009 Q3 → 2011 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2009 Q3 ~ 2010 Q4 · 6 quarters
Gap at entry
11.72%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2011 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

China met the criterion for 6 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2011 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

Korea · 2008 Q4Completed · 2008 Q45 quarters

Observed 2008 Q4 → 2010 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2008 Q4 ~ 2009 Q4 · 5 quarters
Gap at entry
10.02%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2010 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Korea met the criterion for 5 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2010 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

United States · 2007 Q2Completed · 2007 Q24 quarters

Observed 2007 Q2 → 2008 Q2 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2007 Q2 ~ 2008 Q1 · 4 quarters
Gap at entry
11.22%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2008 Q2
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

United States met the criterion for 4 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2008 Q2; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

United States · 2006 Q4Completed · 2006 Q41 quarters

Observed 2006 Q4 → 2007 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2006 Q4 ~ 2006 Q4 · 1 quarters
Gap at entry
10.11%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2007 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

United States met the criterion for 1 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2007 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

China · 2002 Q3Completed · 2002 Q37 quarters

Observed 2002 Q3 → 2004 Q2 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2002 Q3 ~ 2004 Q1 · 7 quarters
Gap at entry
10.08%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2004 Q2
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

China met the criterion for 7 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2004 Q2; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

China · 2000 Q4Completed · 2000 Q41 quarters

Observed 2000 Q4 → 2001 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
2000 Q4 ~ 2000 Q4 · 1 quarters
Gap at entry
11.25%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2001 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

China met the criterion for 1 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2001 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

China · 1999 Q4Completed · 1999 Q43 quarters

Observed 1999 Q4 → 2000 Q3 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
1999 Q4 ~ 2000 Q2 · 3 quarters
Gap at entry
16.23%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
2000 Q3
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

China met the criterion for 3 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 2000 Q3; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

Korea · 1997 Q4Completed · 1997 Q41 quarters

Observed 1997 Q4 → 1998 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
1997 Q4 ~ 1997 Q4 · 1 quarters
Gap at entry
12.78%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
1998 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Korea met the criterion for 1 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 1998 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

Japan · 1987 Q2Completed · 1987 Q219 quarters

Observed 1987 Q2 → 1992 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
1987 Q2 ~ 1991 Q4 · 19 quarters
Gap at entry
14.26%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
1992 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Japan met the criterion for 19 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 1992 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

Korea · 1985 Q2Completed · 1985 Q22 quarters

Observed 1985 Q2 → 1985 Q4 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
1985 Q2 ~ 1985 Q3 · 2 quarters
Gap at entry
11.38%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
1985 Q4
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Korea met the criterion for 2 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 1985 Q4; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

Korea · 1982 Q4Completed · 1982 Q45 quarters

Observed 1982 Q4 → 1984 Q1 · As of 2026-03-31

Observation window
1982 Q4 ~ 1983 Q4 · 5 quarters
Gap at entry
14.13%p
First quarter at or below 10%p
1984 Q1
Duration unit
Number of observed quarters · Exact entry and exit dates within each quarter are unknown

Korea met the criterion for 5 consecutive quarters with the gap above 10%p. It fell to 10%p or below in 1984 Q1; this does not identify the timing of a credit crisis or bubble collapse, or the recovery period for asset prices.

How to interpret this

This is an indirect indicator of how elevated credit has become relative to economic size and its statistical trend. A high gap can persist or be temporary; crossing the threshold does not mean a particular asset is necessarily in a bubble or about to collapse. Mean duration summarizes episodes observed in these four economies; it does not predict economy-specific crisis probabilities or remaining duration.

Differences in data starting dates, credit coverage, GDP revisions and financial structures mean these do not indicate equal risk across countries. The BIS one-sided filter does not use later observations to estimate the trend, but this sample uses currently published revised data, not a real-time backtest validated with vintages actually available at the time. Historical statistical or institutional changes can limit comparability even without recorded break flags. Falling GDP can change the ratio and gap without credit growth. Quarterly observations cannot identify exact entry or exit dates within a quarter. This Korean explanation and the derived calculations are not official BIS translations, views or endorsements. Users must not be charged an additional fee merely because BIS statistics are included.

Conditions, methodology and sources

The four economies—Japan, Korea, the United States and China—were fixed in advance. The full published BIS series for each is used, with differing coverage: Japan 1974 Q4~2026 Q1, Korea 1972 Q4~2026 Q1, United States 1957 Q4~2026 Q1, and China 1995 Q4~2026 Q1. Coverage is credit from all sectors (A) to the private non-financial sector (P). The selected series is the gap (C), the actual ratio minus trend, rather than the total credit/GDP ratio (A) or trend (B). BIS estimates the long-term trend with a backward-looking one-sided HP filter (smoothing parameter 400,000). This builder uses BIS-published gaps without re-estimating the filter or splicing country data. The criterion is strictly above 10%p (>10), excluding 10.0. This fixed threshold relates to Basel’s countercyclical capital buffer reference framework, but is not interpreted as actual national regulatory implementation or an official bubble diagnosis. Every consecutive observed-quarter spell meeting the condition forms a case, including single-quarter spells. Entry is the first quarter above the threshold; completion is the first quarter at or below 10%p. Their quarter difference counts observed above-threshold quarters. Duration is measured in quarters and is not converted into months. Day 1 of the first month of each quarter represents stored observation quarters, not daily entry dates or precisely measured monthly durations. Spells already meeting the condition at sample boundaries or losing continuity through gaps or breaks remain known observations but are excluded from completed-duration calculations. Unended spells remain ongoing without a calculated final duration. Missing values, abnormal observation statuses and recorded breaks are neither interpolated nor bridged.