When were Korean exports lower than 1 year earlier?

Korea · Merchandise exports to the world · Year-over-year decline · Consecutive spell duration

Total 51 · Completed 50 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2025-05 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases50 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median1 monthsMean 3.3 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 19 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.05 export-decline spellCompleted · 2025-051 months

Observed 2025-05 → 2025-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2025-05 ~ 2025-05 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.31%
First non-declining month
2025-06

From 2025-05 through 2025-05, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2025-06. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2025.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 2025-011 months

Observed 2025-01 → 2025-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2025-01 ~ 2025-01 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-10.11%
First non-declining month
2025-02

From 2025-01 through 2025-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2025-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2022.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 2022-1012 months

Observed 2022-10 → 2023-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2022-10 ~ 2023-09 · 12 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-5.81%
First non-declining month
2023-10

From 2022-10 through 2023-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 12 months, returning to 0% or above in 2023-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2020.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 2020-101 months

Observed 2020-10 → 2020-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2020-10 ~ 2020-10 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-3.92%
First non-declining month
2020-11

From 2020-10 through 2020-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2020-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2020.03 export-decline spellCompleted · 2020-036 months

Observed 2020-03 → 2020-09 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2020-03 ~ 2020-08 · 6 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.78%
First non-declining month
2020-09

From 2020-03 through 2020-08, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 6 months, returning to 0% or above in 2020-09. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2018.12 export-decline spellCompleted · 2018-1214 months

Observed 2018-12 → 2020-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2018-12 ~ 2020-01 · 14 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.70%
First non-declining month
2020-02

From 2018-12 through 2020-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 14 months, returning to 0% or above in 2020-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2018.09 export-decline spellCompleted · 2018-091 months

Observed 2018-09 → 2018-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2018-09 ~ 2018-09 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-8.10%
First non-declining month
2018-10

From 2018-09 through 2018-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2018-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2018.06 export-decline spellCompleted · 2018-061 months

Observed 2018-06 → 2018-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2018-06 ~ 2018-06 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.38%
First non-declining month
2018-07

From 2018-06 through 2018-06, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2018-07. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2018.04 export-decline spellCompleted · 2018-041 months

Observed 2018-04 → 2018-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2018-04 ~ 2018-04 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.95%
First non-declining month
2018-05

From 2018-04 through 2018-04, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2018-05. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2016.09 export-decline spellCompleted · 2016-092 months

Observed 2016-09 → 2016-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2016-09 ~ 2016-10 · 2 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-5.95%
First non-declining month
2016-11

From 2016-09 through 2016-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 2 months, returning to 0% or above in 2016-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2015.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 2015-0119 months

Observed 2015-01 → 2016-08 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2015-01 ~ 2016-07 · 19 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.00%
First non-declining month
2016-08

From 2015-01 through 2016-07, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 19 months, returning to 0% or above in 2016-08. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2014.11 export-decline spellCompleted · 2014-111 months

Observed 2014-11 → 2014-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2014-11 ~ 2014-11 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-2.71%
First non-declining month
2014-12

From 2014-11 through 2014-11, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2014-12. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2014.08 export-decline spellCompleted · 2014-081 months

Observed 2014-08 → 2014-09 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2014-08 ~ 2014-08 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.44%
First non-declining month
2014-09

From 2014-08 through 2014-08, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2014-09. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2014.05 export-decline spellCompleted · 2014-051 months

Observed 2014-05 → 2014-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2014-05 ~ 2014-05 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.51%
First non-declining month
2014-06

From 2014-05 through 2014-05, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2014-06. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2014.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 2014-011 months

Observed 2014-01 → 2014-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2014-01 ~ 2014-01 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.25%
First non-declining month
2014-02

From 2014-01 through 2014-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2014-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2013.09 export-decline spellCompleted · 2013-091 months

Observed 2013-09 → 2013-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2013-09 ~ 2013-09 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.68%
First non-declining month
2013-10

From 2013-09 through 2013-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2013-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2013.06 export-decline spellCompleted · 2013-061 months

Observed 2013-06 → 2013-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2013-06 ~ 2013-06 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.00%
First non-declining month
2013-07

From 2013-06 through 2013-06, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2013-07. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2013.02 export-decline spellCompleted · 2013-022 months

Observed 2013-02 → 2013-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2013-02 ~ 2013-03 · 2 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-8.60%
First non-declining month
2013-04

From 2013-02 through 2013-03, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 2 months, returning to 0% or above in 2013-04. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2012.12 export-decline spellCompleted · 2012-121 months

Observed 2012-12 → 2013-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2012-12 ~ 2012-12 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-6.01%
First non-declining month
2013-01

From 2012-12 through 2012-12, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2013-01. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2012.07 export-decline spellCompleted · 2012-073 months

Observed 2012-07 → 2012-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2012-07 ~ 2012-09 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-8.75%
First non-declining month
2012-10

From 2012-07 through 2012-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 2012-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2012.03 export-decline spellCompleted · 2012-033 months

Observed 2012-03 → 2012-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2012-03 ~ 2012-05 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.50%
First non-declining month
2012-06

From 2012-03 through 2012-05, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 2012-06. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2012.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 2012-011 months

Observed 2012-01 → 2012-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2012-01 ~ 2012-01 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-7.34%
First non-declining month
2012-02

From 2012-01 through 2012-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2012-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2008.11 export-decline spellCompleted · 2008-1112 months

Observed 2008-11 → 2009-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2008-11 ~ 2009-10 · 12 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-19.45%
First non-declining month
2009-11

From 2008-11 through 2009-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 12 months, returning to 0% or above in 2009-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2007.09 export-decline spellCompleted · 2007-091 months

Observed 2007-09 → 2007-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2007-09 ~ 2007-09 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.11%
First non-declining month
2007-10

From 2007-09 through 2007-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2007-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2002.06 export-decline spellCompleted · 2002-061 months

Observed 2002-06 → 2002-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2002-06 ~ 2002-06 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.29%
First non-declining month
2002-07

From 2002-06 through 2002-06, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 2002-07. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

2001.03 export-decline spellCompleted · 2001-0313 months

Observed 2001-03 → 2002-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
2001-03 ~ 2002-03 · 13 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-2.11%
First non-declining month
2002-04

From 2001-03 through 2002-03, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 13 months, returning to 0% or above in 2002-04. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1999.02 export-decline spellCompleted · 1999-023 months

Observed 1999-02 → 1999-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1999-02 ~ 1999-04 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-16.79%
First non-declining month
1999-05

From 1999-02 through 1999-04, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 1999-05. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1998.05 export-decline spellCompleted · 1998-058 months

Observed 1998-05 → 1999-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1998-05 ~ 1998-12 · 8 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-3.71%
First non-declining month
1999-01

From 1998-05 through 1998-12, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 8 months, returning to 0% or above in 1999-01. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1998.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 1998-011 months

Observed 1998-01 → 1998-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1998-01 ~ 1998-01 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.38%
First non-declining month
1998-02

From 1998-01 through 1998-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1998-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1997.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 1997-013 months

Observed 1997-01 → 1997-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1997-01 ~ 1997-03 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-8.95%
First non-declining month
1997-04

From 1997-01 through 1997-03, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 1997-04. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1996.11 export-decline spellCompleted · 1996-111 months

Observed 1996-11 → 1996-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1996-11 ~ 1996-11 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.55%
First non-declining month
1996-12

From 1996-11 through 1996-11, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1996-12. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1996.07 export-decline spellCompleted · 1996-073 months

Observed 1996-07 → 1996-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1996-07 ~ 1996-09 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-5.61%
First non-declining month
1996-10

From 1996-07 through 1996-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 1996-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1992.11 export-decline spellCompleted · 1992-113 months

Observed 1992-11 → 1993-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1992-11 ~ 1993-01 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.73%
First non-declining month
1993-02

From 1992-11 through 1993-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 1993-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1991.09 export-decline spellCompleted · 1991-091 months

Observed 1991-09 → 1991-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1991-09 ~ 1991-09 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-7.06%
First non-declining month
1991-10

From 1991-09 through 1991-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1991-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1990.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 1990-101 months

Observed 1990-10 → 1990-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1990-10 ~ 1990-10 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.29%
First non-declining month
1990-11

From 1990-10 through 1990-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1990-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1990.03 export-decline spellCompleted · 1990-031 months

Observed 1990-03 → 1990-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1990-03 ~ 1990-03 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-1.10%
First non-declining month
1990-04

From 1990-03 through 1990-03, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1990-04. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1989.11 export-decline spellCompleted · 1989-113 months

Observed 1989-11 → 1990-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1989-11 ~ 1990-01 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-2.75%
First non-declining month
1990-02

From 1989-11 through 1990-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 1990-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1989.08 export-decline spellCompleted · 1989-081 months

Observed 1989-08 → 1989-09 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1989-08 ~ 1989-08 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.75%
First non-declining month
1989-09

From 1989-08 through 1989-08, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1989-09. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1986.12 export-decline spellCompleted · 1986-121 months

Observed 1986-12 → 1987-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1986-12 ~ 1986-12 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-8.36%
First non-declining month
1987-01

From 1986-12 through 1986-12, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1987-01. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1985.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 1985-101 months

Observed 1985-10 → 1985-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1985-10 ~ 1985-10 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-3.65%
First non-declining month
1985-11

From 1985-10 through 1985-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1985-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1985.05 export-decline spellCompleted · 1985-052 months

Observed 1985-05 → 1985-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1985-05 ~ 1985-06 · 2 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-0.12%
First non-declining month
1985-07

From 1985-05 through 1985-06, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 2 months, returning to 0% or above in 1985-07. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1985.01 export-decline spellCompleted · 1985-012 months

Observed 1985-01 → 1985-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1985-01 ~ 1985-02 · 2 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-19.42%
First non-declining month
1985-03

From 1985-01 through 1985-02, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 2 months, returning to 0% or above in 1985-03. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1982.11 export-decline spellCompleted · 1982-113 months

Observed 1982-11 → 1983-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1982-11 ~ 1983-01 · 3 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-10.16%
First non-declining month
1983-02

From 1982-11 through 1983-01, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 3 months, returning to 0% or above in 1983-02. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1982.06 export-decline spellCompleted · 1982-062 months

Observed 1982-06 → 1982-08 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1982-06 ~ 1982-07 · 2 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-4.74%
First non-declining month
1982-08

From 1982-06 through 1982-07, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 2 months, returning to 0% or above in 1982-08. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1974.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 1974-109 months

Observed 1974-10 → 1975-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1974-10 ~ 1975-06 · 9 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-6.29%
First non-declining month
1975-07

From 1974-10 through 1975-06, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 9 months, returning to 0% or above in 1975-07. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1964.03 export-decline spellCompleted · 1964-032 months

Observed 1964-03 → 1964-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1964-03 ~ 1964-04 · 2 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-12.50%
First non-declining month
1964-05

From 1964-03 through 1964-04, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 2 months, returning to 0% or above in 1964-05. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1963.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 1963-101 months

Observed 1963-10 → 1963-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1963-10 ~ 1963-10 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-12.50%
First non-declining month
1963-11

From 1963-10 through 1963-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1963-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1962.05 export-decline spellCompleted · 1962-051 months

Observed 1962-05 → 1962-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1962-05 ~ 1962-05 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-25.00%
First non-declining month
1962-06

From 1962-05 through 1962-05, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1962-06. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1959.10 export-decline spellCompleted · 1959-101 months

Observed 1959-10 → 1959-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1959-10 ~ 1959-10 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-50.00%
First non-declining month
1959-11

From 1959-10 through 1959-10, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 1 months, returning to 0% or above in 1959-11. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

1958.03 export-decline spellCompleted · 1958-037 months

Observed 1958-03 → 1958-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Observed declining months
1958-03 ~ 1958-09 · 7 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-50.00%
First non-declining month
1958-10

From 1958-03 through 1958-09, dollar-denominated merchandise exports were below the same month a year earlier for 7 months, returning to 0% or above in 1958-10. This is a decline in nominal export value, not changes in export volume, corporate profits or stock prices.

Sample start boundary · 1958.01 export-decline spellExcluded · 1958-01—

Observed 1958-01 → 1958-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Exclusion reason: The actual start of the decline cannot be identified because the preceding month’s year-over-year change cannot be calculated. The observed spell remains listed but is excluded from completed-duration statistics.

Observed declining months
1958-01 ~ 1958-01 · 1 months
Year-over-year change at the first observation
-66.67%
First non-declining month
1958-02

The actual start of the decline cannot be identified because the preceding month’s year-over-year change cannot be calculated. The observed spell remains listed but is excluded from completed-duration statistics.

How to interpret this

The same export-decline condition can end after a single month or persist for several months. Negative-spell duration differs from the time needed for export value to regain a prior peak. Nominal dollar values combine prices, exchange rates, working days and base effects; they do not determine an economy-wide recession.

Export-value declines are not investment returns. Even year-over-year comparisons of non-seasonally adjusted values are influenced by Lunar New Year shifts, working days and price changes. This comparison uses currently published revised source data, not a trading strategy validated with real-time information available at the time. More recent provisional releases from Korean institutions are not arbitrarily appended beyond the OECD series’ latest observation month. Duration statistics are not forecasts and do not indicate how much longer an ongoing spell will last. These are derived statistics calculated by ASSETCASTING from OECD data, not official OECD views or endorsements.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Coverage includes all observed negative spells overlapping the analysis window, not only spells beginning within it. Declines crossing the starting boundary count as observations but are excluded from calculations when their actual start is unknown. Uses OECD merchandise-trade statistics for Korean exports to the world (XTEXVA01KRM667N, nominal dollar-converted values, monthly, non-seasonally adjusted). The entire source series from 1957-01 through 2026-06 is retained, and all months since 1958-01 that permit year-over-year comparisons are examined. Change is (exports in the month / exports exactly 12 months earlier - 1) × 100; consecutive months below 0% form a case. No ex-post minimum-duration condition such as 2 months is imposed, so all single-month spells are included. Observation begins in the first negative month and completed duration ends in the first month returning to 0% or above; their month difference is the count of negative months. Monthly dates normalized to day 1 represent observation months, not actual release dates. Left-truncated spells whose preceding month cannot be calculated, or spells ending in missing data, remain observed cases but are excluded from completed-duration statistics. Spells negative through the sample end with a confirmed start remain ongoing; only observed months are provided, without a final value. Missing values are not interpolated, and the last source observation month is the reference date, so there is no arbitrary cutoff at month 9.