ASSETCASTING

When was Japanese industrial production lower than 1 year earlier?

Japan · Year-over-year decline in the unadjusted industrial production index

Total 56 · Completed 56 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2026-05 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases56 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median1.5 monthsMean 3.9 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 32 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2026.05 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2026-051 months

Observed 2026-05 → 2026-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.12%
Last confirmed negative month
2026-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2026-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2025.11 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2025-111 months

Observed 2025-11 → 2025-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-4.16%
Last confirmed negative month
2025-11
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2025-12 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2025.07 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2025-072 months

Observed 2025-07 → 2025-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.48%
Last confirmed negative month
2025-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2025-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2025.04 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2025-042 months

Observed 2025-04 → 2025-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.70%
Last confirmed negative month
2025-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2025-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2024.11 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2024-112 months

Observed 2024-11 → 2025-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-3.27%
Last confirmed negative month
2024-12
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2025-01 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2024.08 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2024-082 months

Observed 2024-08 → 2024-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-4.89%
Last confirmed negative month
2024-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2024-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2024.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2024-061 months

Observed 2024-06 → 2024-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-8.23%
Last confirmed negative month
2024-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2024-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2023.11 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 2023-116 months

Observed 2023-11 → 2024-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.57%
Last confirmed negative month
2024-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2024-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2023.06 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 2023-064 months

Observed 2023-06 → 2023-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.09%
Last confirmed negative month
2023-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
4 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2023-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2022.11 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 2022-116 months

Observed 2022-11 → 2023-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.36%
Last confirmed negative month
2023-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2023-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2022.03 start · 5 monthsCompleted · 2022-035 months

Observed 2022-03 → 2022-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.58%
Last confirmed negative month
2022-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
5 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2022-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2022.01 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2022-011 months

Observed 2022-01 → 2022-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.72%
Last confirmed negative month
2022-01
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2022-02 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2021.09 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2021-092 months

Observed 2021-09 → 2021-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.43%
Last confirmed negative month
2021-10
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2021-11 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2019.10 start · 17 monthsCompleted · 2019-1017 months

Observed 2019-10 → 2021-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-7.82%
Last confirmed negative month
2021-02
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
17 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2021-03 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2019.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2019-081 months

Observed 2019-08 → 2019-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-5.00%
Last confirmed negative month
2019-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2019-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2019.02 start · 5 monthsCompleted · 2019-025 months

Observed 2019-02 → 2019-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.54%
Last confirmed negative month
2019-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
5 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2019-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2018.12 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2018-121 months

Observed 2018-12 → 2019-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.87%
Last confirmed negative month
2018-12
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2019-01 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2018.09 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2018-091 months

Observed 2018-09 → 2018-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-3.31%
Last confirmed negative month
2018-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2018-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2018.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2018-061 months

Observed 2018-06 → 2018-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.45%
Last confirmed negative month
2018-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2018-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2016.10 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2016-101 months

Observed 2016-10 → 2016-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.33%
Last confirmed negative month
2016-10
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2016-11 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2016.06 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2016-062 months

Observed 2016-06 → 2016-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.30%
Last confirmed negative month
2016-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2016-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2016.04 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2016-041 months

Observed 2016-04 → 2016-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.94%
Last confirmed negative month
2016-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2016-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2015.12 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2015-123 months

Observed 2015-12 → 2016-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.15%
Last confirmed negative month
2016-02
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
3 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2016-03 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2015.07 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 2015-074 months

Observed 2015-07 → 2015-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.17%
Last confirmed negative month
2015-10
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
4 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2015-11 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2014.10 start · 8 monthsCompleted · 2014-108 months

Observed 2014-10 → 2015-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.69%
Last confirmed negative month
2015-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
8 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2015-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2014.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2014-081 months

Observed 2014-08 → 2014-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.33%
Last confirmed negative month
2014-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2014-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2013.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2013-081 months

Observed 2013-08 → 2013-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.34%
Last confirmed negative month
2013-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2013-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2013.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2013-061 months

Observed 2013-06 → 2013-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-4.63%
Last confirmed negative month
2013-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2013-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2012.08 start · 9 monthsCompleted · 2012-089 months

Observed 2012-08 → 2013-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-4.14%
Last confirmed negative month
2013-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
9 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2013-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2012.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2012-061 months

Observed 2012-06 → 2012-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.61%
Last confirmed negative month
2012-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2012-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2011.11 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2011-112 months

Observed 2011-11 → 2012-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.50%
Last confirmed negative month
2011-12
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2012-01 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2011.09 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2011-091 months

Observed 2011-09 → 2011-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.95%
Last confirmed negative month
2011-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2011-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2011.03 start · 5 monthsCompleted · 2011-035 months

Observed 2011-03 → 2011-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-13.38%
Last confirmed negative month
2011-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
5 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2011-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2008.10 start · 14 monthsCompleted · 2008-1014 months

Observed 2008-10 → 2009-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-7.71%
Last confirmed negative month
2009-11
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
14 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2009-12 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2008.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2008-081 months

Observed 2008-08 → 2008-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-7.93%
Last confirmed negative month
2008-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2008-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2008.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2008-061 months

Observed 2008-06 → 2008-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.31%
Last confirmed negative month
2008-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2008-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2005.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2005-071 months

Observed 2005-07 → 2005-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.61%
Last confirmed negative month
2005-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2005-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2004.10 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2004-101 months

Observed 2004-10 → 2004-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.09%
Last confirmed negative month
2004-10
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2004-11 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2003.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2003-081 months

Observed 2003-08 → 2003-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.32%
Last confirmed negative month
2003-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2003-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2001.02 start · 17 monthsCompleted · 2001-0217 months

Observed 2001-02 → 2002-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.12%
Last confirmed negative month
2002-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
17 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2002-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1997.11 start · 21 monthsCompleted · 1997-1121 months

Observed 1997-11 → 1999-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-2.56%
Last confirmed negative month
1999-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
21 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1999-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1996.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1996-061 months

Observed 1996-06 → 1996-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.71%
Last confirmed negative month
1996-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1996-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1996.03 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1996-032 months

Observed 1996-03 → 1996-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-3.08%
Last confirmed negative month
1996-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1996-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1994.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1994-071 months

Observed 1994-07 → 1994-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.26%
Last confirmed negative month
1994-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1994-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1991.10 start · 32 monthsCompleted · 1991-1032 months

Observed 1991-10 → 1994-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.91%
Last confirmed negative month
1994-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
32 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1994-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1991.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1991-081 months

Observed 1991-08 → 1991-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.36%
Last confirmed negative month
1991-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1991-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1987.05 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1987-051 months

Observed 1987-05 → 1987-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.70%
Last confirmed negative month
1987-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1987-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1987.02 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1987-021 months

Observed 1987-02 → 1987-03 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.22%
Last confirmed negative month
1987-02
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1987-03 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1986.10 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1986-102 months

Observed 1986-10 → 1986-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.41%
Last confirmed negative month
1986-11
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1986-12 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1986.07 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1986-072 months

Observed 1986-07 → 1986-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.50%
Last confirmed negative month
1986-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1986-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1986.04 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1986-042 months

Observed 1986-04 → 1986-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.41%
Last confirmed negative month
1986-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1986-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1982.10 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 1982-106 months

Observed 1982-10 → 1983-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-4.13%
Last confirmed negative month
1983-03
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1983-04 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1982.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1982-081 months

Observed 1982-08 → 1982-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.13%
Last confirmed negative month
1982-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1982-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1981.02 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 1981-024 months

Observed 1981-02 → 1981-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-3.48%
Last confirmed negative month
1981-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
4 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1981-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1980.11 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1980-111 months

Observed 1980-11 → 1980-12 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-1.12%
Last confirmed negative month
1980-11
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1980-12 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1980.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1980-081 months

Observed 1980-08 → 1980-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2020 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.80%
Last confirmed negative month
1980-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1980-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

How to interpret this

This is a history of spells when Japanese price or production indicators were below the same month a year earlier, not official business-cycle determinations or stock or foreign-exchange returns. Completed-case means do not predict future endpoints, and statistical independence is not guaranteed even for temporally separated cases.

Coverage is nationwide Japan, not all of Asia or Tokyo alone. The currently available rebased, linked and revised vintage is used and may differ from information available in real time. Industrial production for 2026, month 8 is provisional, and source-data revisions can change case boundaries. The latest month is 2026-08; no subsequent months were added or estimated. Cases with unconfirmed ends are excluded from numerical statistics.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the change calculated from METI’s nationwide Japanese unadjusted industrial production index (2020 base) as (current month/12 months earlier−1)×100 is below 0%. The entire comparable period 1979-01~2026-08 is examined, including single-month spells. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference from the first negative month to the first month at or above 0%. Spells lacking boundaries or with missing intermediate data are excluded from statistics, without interpolating missing values. Spells negative through the latest observation retain an unconfirmed end; elapsed duration is not extended to the verification date. The first day represents monthly data, not an actual event date. Annual changes are independently calculated from published rounded unadjusted index values and can differ in decimal places from officially published changes. Because the unadjusted index is used, this is not treated as using the same formula or sample as the seasonally adjusted US industrial production pattern. API provisional-value flags are retained. This is an independent analysis processing the source data, not a result prepared or endorsed by the Japanese government. This service uses Japan’s Statistics Dashboard API, but its content is not guaranteed by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.