ASSETCASTING

When were Japanese consumer prices lower than 1 year earlier?

Japan · All-items CPI year-over-year change below 0%

Total 24 · Completed 24 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2020-10 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases24 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median3 monthsMean 6.6 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 49 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2020.10 start · 11 monthsCompleted · 2020-1011 months

Observed 2020-10 → 2021-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.40%
Last confirmed negative month
2021-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
11 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2021-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2016.04 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 2016-046 months

Observed 2016-04 → 2016-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.30%
Last confirmed negative month
2016-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2016-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2016.01 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2016-011 months

Observed 2016-01 → 2016-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
2016-01
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2016-02 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2012.06 start · 12 monthsCompleted · 2012-0612 months

Observed 2012-06 → 2013-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
2013-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
12 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2013-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2011.10 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2011-103 months

Observed 2011-10 → 2012-01 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
2011-12
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
3 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2012-01 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2011.01 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 2011-016 months

Observed 2011-01 → 2011-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.60%
Last confirmed negative month
2011-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2011-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2009.02 start · 20 monthsCompleted · 2009-0220 months

Observed 2009-02 → 2010-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
2010-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
20 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2010-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2007.08 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2007-082 months

Observed 2007-08 → 2007-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
2007-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2007-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2007.06 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 2007-061 months

Observed 2007-06 → 2007-07 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
2007-06
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2007-07 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2007.02 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2007-022 months

Observed 2007-02 → 2007-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
2007-03
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2007-04 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2005.06 start · 11 monthsCompleted · 2005-0611 months

Observed 2005-06 → 2006-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.50%
Last confirmed negative month
2006-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
11 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2006-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2005.01 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2005-013 months

Observed 2005-01 → 2005-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
2005-03
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
3 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2005-04 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2004.07 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 2004-072 months

Observed 2004-07 → 2004-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
2004-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2004-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2004.03 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2004-033 months

Observed 2004-03 → 2004-06 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
2004-05
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
3 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2004-06 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

2003.11 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 2003-113 months

Observed 2003-11 → 2004-02 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.50%
Last confirmed negative month
2004-01
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
3 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2004-02 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1999.09 start · 49 monthsCompleted · 1999-0949 months

Observed 1999-09 → 2003-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
2003-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
49 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 2003-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1999.02 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 1999-026 months

Observed 1999-02 → 1999-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
1999-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1999-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1998.07 start · 3 monthsCompleted · 1998-073 months

Observed 1998-07 → 1998-10 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.10%
Last confirmed negative month
1998-09
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
3 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1998-10 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1995.10 start · 6 monthsCompleted · 1995-106 months

Observed 1995-10 → 1996-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.60%
Last confirmed negative month
1996-03
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
6 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1996-04 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1995.08 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1995-081 months

Observed 1995-08 → 1995-09 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
1995-08
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1995-09 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1995.03 start · 2 monthsCompleted · 1995-032 months

Observed 1995-03 → 1995-05 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.40%
Last confirmed negative month
1995-04
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
2 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1995-05 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1994.07 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1994-071 months

Observed 1994-07 → 1994-08 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.20%
Last confirmed negative month
1994-07
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1994-08 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1986.12 start · 4 monthsCompleted · 1986-124 months

Observed 1986-12 → 1987-04 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.30%
Last confirmed negative month
1987-03
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
4 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1987-04 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

1986.10 start · 1 monthsCompleted · 1986-101 months

Observed 1986-10 → 1986-11 · As of 2026-10-09

Coverage
Nationwide Japan · 2025 base · Before seasonal adjustment
Year-over-year change in the entry month
-0.30%
Last confirmed negative month
1986-10
Latest data month
2026-08
Included negative observations
1 months
Provisional values included
Based on final published values

All consecutive months with negative year-over-year changes were grouped into a single case. 1986-11 is the first ending-boundary month at or above 0% and is excluded from the duration.

How to interpret this

This is a history of spells when Japanese price or production indicators were below the same month a year earlier, not official business-cycle determinations or stock or foreign-exchange returns. Completed-case means do not predict future endpoints, and statistical independence is not guaranteed even for temporally separated cases.

Coverage is nationwide Japan, not all of Asia or Tokyo alone. The currently available rebased, linked and revised vintage is used and may differ from information available in real time. Consumption taxes, subsidies and base-year revisions affect prices, so negative spells are not interpreted as the causal effects of a particular policy. The latest month is 2026-08; no subsequent months were added or estimated. Cases with unconfirmed ends are excluded from numerical statistics.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Condition: all consecutive monthly spells when the published year-over-year change in nationwide all-items CPI (2025 base) from the Statistics Bureau of Japan is below 0%. The entire comparable period 1971-01~2026-08 is examined, including single-month spells. Completed duration is the calendar-month difference from the first negative month to the first month at or above 0%. Spells lacking boundaries or with missing intermediate data are excluded from statistics, without interpolating missing values. Spells negative through the latest observation retain an unconfirmed end; elapsed duration is not extended to the verification date. The first day represents monthly data, not an actual event date. Published changes are rounded and can differ from small sign changes recalculated from the index. Published 0 values are not counted as negative. API provisional-value flags are retained. This is an independent analysis processing the source data, not a result prepared or endorsed by the Japanese government. This service uses Japan’s Statistics Dashboard API, but its content is not guaranteed by the Statistics Bureau of Japan.