ASSETCASTING

How did the euro move against the dollar in Q3?

dollars per 1 euro · First valid observation → last valid observation in Q3 · Since 2007

Total 20 · Completed 20 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2026-07-01 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases11 / 20Negative 9 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.4%Mean -0.3%
Completed outcome range-10.8% ~ +9.1%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2026.07.01 · 2026, Q3Completed · 2026-07-01-0.3%

Observed 2026-07-01 → 2026-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2026-07-01 · 1.1384 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2026-09-30 · 1.1345 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2026, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1384 to 1.1345, a spot-quote change of -0.3426%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2025.07.01 · 2025, Q3Completed · 2025-07-01-0.3%

Observed 2025-07-01 → 2025-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-07-01 · 1.1776 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2025-09-30 · 1.1735 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2025, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1776 to 1.1735, a spot-quote change of -0.3482%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.07.01 · 2024, Q3Completed · 2024-07-01+3.9%

Observed 2024-07-01 → 2024-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-07-01 · 1.0728 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2024-09-30 · 1.1145 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2024, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.0728 to 1.1145, a spot-quote change of 3.887%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.07.03 · 2023, Q3Completed · 2023-07-03-3.1%

Observed 2023-07-03 → 2023-09-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-07-03 · 1.0919 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2023-09-29 · 1.0584 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2023, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.0919 to 1.0584, a spot-quote change of -3.068%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.07.01 · 2022, Q3Completed · 2022-07-01-6%

Observed 2022-07-01 → 2022-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-07-01 · 1.0409 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2022-09-30 · 0.9783 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2022, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.0409 to 0.9783, a spot-quote change of -6.014%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2021.07.01 · 2021, Q3Completed · 2021-07-01-2.4%

Observed 2021-07-01 → 2021-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2021-07-01 · 1.1857 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2021-09-30 · 1.1577 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2021, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1857 to 1.1577, a spot-quote change of -2.3615%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.07.01 · 2020, Q3Completed · 2020-07-01+4.1%

Observed 2020-07-01 → 2020-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-07-01 · 1.1259 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2020-09-30 · 1.1723 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2020, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1259 to 1.1723, a spot-quote change of 4.1211%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2019.07.01 · 2019, Q3Completed · 2019-07-01-3.6%

Observed 2019-07-01 → 2019-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2019-07-01 · 1.1307 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2019-09-30 · 1.0905 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2019, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1307 to 1.0905, a spot-quote change of -3.5553%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.07.02 · 2018, Q3Completed · 2018-07-02+0.2%

Observed 2018-07-02 → 2018-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-07-02 · 1.1604 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2018-09-28 · 1.1622 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2018, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1604 to 1.1622, a spot-quote change of 0.1551%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2017.07.03 · 2017, Q3Completed · 2017-07-03+3.9%

Observed 2017-07-03 → 2017-09-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2017-07-03 · 1.1367 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2017-09-29 · 1.1813 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2017, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1367 to 1.1813, a spot-quote change of 3.9236%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.07.01 · 2016, Q3Completed · 2016-07-01+0.8%

Observed 2016-07-01 → 2016-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-07-01 · 1.1145 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2016-09-30 · 1.1238 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2016, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1145 to 1.1238, a spot-quote change of 0.8345%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.07.01 · 2015, Q3Completed · 2015-07-01+0.7%

Observed 2015-07-01 → 2015-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-07-01 · 1.1084 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2015-09-30 · 1.1162 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2015, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.1084 to 1.1162, a spot-quote change of 0.7037%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2014.07.01 · 2014, Q3Completed · 2014-07-01-7.7%

Observed 2014-07-01 → 2014-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2014-07-01 · 1.3681 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2014-09-30 · 1.2628 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2014, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.3681 to 1.2628, a spot-quote change of -7.6968%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2013.07.01 · 2013, Q3Completed · 2013-07-01+3.6%

Observed 2013-07-01 → 2013-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2013-07-01 · 1.306 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2013-09-30 · 1.3535 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2013, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.306 to 1.3535, a spot-quote change of 3.6371%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.07.02 · 2012, Q3Completed · 2012-07-02+2.2%

Observed 2012-07-02 → 2012-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-07-02 · 1.2584 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2012-09-28 · 1.2856 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2012, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.2584 to 1.2856, a spot-quote change of 2.1615%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.07.01 · 2011, Q3Completed · 2011-07-01-7.3%

Observed 2011-07-01 → 2011-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-07-01 · 1.4508 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2011-09-30 · 1.3449 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2011, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.4508 to 1.3449, a spot-quote change of -7.2994%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.07.01 · 2010, Q3Completed · 2010-07-01+9.1%

Observed 2010-07-01 → 2010-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-07-01 · 1.2464 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2010-09-30 · 1.3601 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2010, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.2464 to 1.3601, a spot-quote change of 9.1223%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.07.01 · 2009, Q3Completed · 2009-07-01+3.1%

Observed 2009-07-01 → 2009-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-07-01 · 1.4186 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2009-09-30 · 1.463 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2009, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.4186 to 1.463, a spot-quote change of 3.1298%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.07.01 · 2008, Q3Completed · 2008-07-01-10.8%

Observed 2008-07-01 → 2008-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-07-01 · 1.5778 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2008-09-30 · 1.4081 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2008, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.5778 to 1.4081, a spot-quote change of -10.7555%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.07.02 · 2007, Q3Completed · 2007-07-02+4.3%

Observed 2007-07-02 → 2007-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-07-02 · 1.3627 USD/EUR
Ending observation
2007-09-28 · 1.4219 USD/EUR
Calendar window
2007, Q3 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed dollars per 1 euro changed from 1.3627 to 1.4219, a spot-quote change of 4.3443%. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all annual calendar windows corresponding to Q3 between 2007-01-01~2026-10-02. The observation start date is the first valid observation in that window, and the end date is the last valid observation. These are therefore not monthly changes relative to the previous month-end or total returns for an entire quarter; they exclude the first observation day’s change relative to the preceding day. Cases whose calendar end date has not yet arrived are marked ongoing and excluded from means and medians. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are dollars per 1 euro, with positive values indicating euro strength and dollar weakness; negative values indicate euro weakness and dollar strength. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.