ASSETCASTING

How many months did year-over-year declines in Chinese merchandise exports last?

China · Merchandise exports to the entire world · Year-over-year change below 0%

Total 34 · Completed 33 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 1

Last observed 2025-10 · Updated 2026-10-09

Completed cases33 casesOngoing and excluded cases are not included
Duration Median1 monthsMean 2.8 months
Completed outcome range1 months ~ 13 monthsMinimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Completed and elapsed durations are distinguished. Cases with unconfirmed endings are excluded from completed statistics. Historical averages do not predict the remaining duration. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.10 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2025-101 months

Observed 2025-10 → 2025-11 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2025-10 · -1.1989%
Value comparison for the first month
2025-10 305,353,200,000 USD / 2024-10 309,058,400,000 USD
Last declining month
2025-10 · -1.1989%
Condition exit month
2025-11 · 5.7763%

From 2025-10 through 2025-10, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2025-11; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2025-10-01=305353200000; baseline 2024-10-01=309058400000; negative months 2025-10-01..2025-10-01; first nonnegative 2025-11-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2024-10-01..2025-11-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2025.02 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2025-021 months

Observed 2025-02 → 2025-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2025-02 · -2.3183%
Value comparison for the first month
2025-02 215,172,500,000 USD / 2024-02 220,279,300,000 USD
Last declining month
2025-02 · -2.3183%
Condition exit month
2025-03 · 12.2389%

From 2025-02 through 2025-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2025-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2025-02-01=215172500000; baseline 2024-02-01=220279300000; negative months 2025-02-01..2025-02-01; first nonnegative 2025-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2024-02-01..2025-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2024.03 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2024-032 months

Observed 2024-03 → 2024-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2024-03 · -11.378%
Value comparison for the first month
2024-03 279,681,700,000 USD / 2023-03 315,589,300,000 USD
Last declining month
2024-04 · -1.0035%
Condition exit month
2024-05 · 6.6543%

From 2024-03 through 2024-04, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 2 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2024-05; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2024-03-01=279681700000; baseline 2023-03-01=315589300000; negative months 2024-03-01..2024-04-01; first nonnegative 2024-05-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2023-03-01..2024-05-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2023.05 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2023-058 months

Observed 2023-05 → 2024-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2023-05 · -6.7177%
Value comparison for the first month
2023-05 283,484,000,000 USD / 2022-05 303,899,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2023-12 · -0.8039%
Condition exit month
2024-01 · 5.2892%

From 2023-05 through 2023-12, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 8 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2024-01; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2023-05-01=283484000000; baseline 2022-05-01=303899000000; negative months 2023-05-01..2023-12-01; first nonnegative 2024-01-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2022-05-01..2024-01-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2022.10 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2022-105 months

Observed 2022-10 → 2023-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2022-10 · -0.2502%
Value comparison for the first month
2022-10 298,371,700,000 USD / 2021-10 299,120,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2023-02 · -0.3586%
Condition exit month
2023-03 · 15.656%

From 2022-10 through 2023-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 5 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2023-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2022-10-01=298371700000; baseline 2021-10-01=299120000000; negative months 2022-10-01..2023-02-01; first nonnegative 2023-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2021-10-01..2023-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2020.05 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2020-051 months

Observed 2020-05 → 2020-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2020-05 · -3.5013%
Value comparison for the first month
2020-05 206,428,000,000 USD / 2019-05 213,918,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2020-05 · -3.5013%
Condition exit month
2020-06 · 0.1793%

From 2020-05 through 2020-05, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2020-06; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2020-05-01=206428000000; baseline 2019-05-01=213918000000; negative months 2020-05-01..2020-05-01; first nonnegative 2020-06-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2019-05-01..2020-06-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2020.01 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2020-013 months

Observed 2020-01 → 2020-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2020-01 · -2.9448%
Value comparison for the first month
2020-01 211,588,000,000 USD / 2019-01 218,008,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2020-03 · -6.8919%
Condition exit month
2020-04 · 3.0355%

From 2020-01 through 2020-03, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 3 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2020-04; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2020-01-01=211588000000; baseline 2019-01-01=218008000000; negative months 2020-01-01..2020-03-01; first nonnegative 2020-04-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2019-01-01..2020-04-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2019.08 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2019-084 months

Observed 2019-08 → 2019-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2019-08 · -0.5632%
Value comparison for the first month
2019-08 214,873,000,000 USD / 2018-08 216,090,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2019-11 · -2.6286%
Condition exit month
2019-12 · 7.859%

From 2019-08 through 2019-11, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 4 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2019-12; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2019-08-01=214873000000; baseline 2018-08-01=216090000000; negative months 2019-08-01..2019-11-01; first nonnegative 2019-12-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2018-08-01..2019-12-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2019.06 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2019-061 months

Observed 2019-06 → 2019-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2019-06 · -1.895%
Value comparison for the first month
2019-06 212,466,000,000 USD / 2018-06 216,570,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2019-06 · -1.895%
Condition exit month
2019-07 · 2.8794%

From 2019-06 through 2019-06, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2019-07; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2019-06-01=212466000000; baseline 2018-06-01=216570000000; negative months 2019-06-01..2019-06-01; first nonnegative 2019-07-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2018-06-01..2019-07-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2019.04 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2019-041 months

Observed 2019-04 → 2019-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2019-04 · -3.1728%
Value comparison for the first month
2019-04 193,606,000,000 USD / 2018-04 199,950,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2019-04 · -3.1728%
Condition exit month
2019-05 · 0.4923%

From 2019-04 through 2019-04, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2019-05; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2019-04-01=193606000000; baseline 2018-04-01=199950000000; negative months 2019-04-01..2019-04-01; first nonnegative 2019-05-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2018-04-01..2019-05-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2019.02 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2019-021 months

Observed 2019-02 → 2019-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2019-02 · -20.8967%
Value comparison for the first month
2019-02 135,330,000,000 USD / 2018-02 171,080,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2019-02 · -20.8967%
Condition exit month
2019-03 · 13.8491%

From 2019-02 through 2019-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2019-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2019-02-01=135330000000.00002; baseline 2018-02-01=171080000000; negative months 2019-02-01..2019-02-01; first nonnegative 2019-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2018-02-01..2019-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2018.12 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2018-121 months

Observed 2018-12 → 2019-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2018-12 · -4.5497%
Value comparison for the first month
2018-12 221,250,000,000 USD / 2017-12 231,796,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2018-12 · -4.5497%
Condition exit month
2019-01 · 8.7371%

From 2018-12 through 2018-12, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2019-01; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2018-12-01=221250000000; baseline 2017-12-01=231796000000; negative months 2018-12-01..2018-12-01; first nonnegative 2019-01-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2017-12-01..2019-01-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2018.03 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2018-031 months

Observed 2018-03 → 2018-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2018-03 · -2.8619%
Value comparison for the first month
2018-03 174,120,000,000 USD / 2017-03 179,250,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2018-03 · -2.8619%
Condition exit month
2018-04 · 12.2117%

From 2018-03 through 2018-03, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2018-04; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2018-03-01=174120000000; baseline 2017-03-01=179250000000; negative months 2018-03-01..2018-03-01; first nonnegative 2018-04-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2017-03-01..2018-04-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2017.02 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2017-021 months

Observed 2017-02 → 2017-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2017-02 · -2.2373%
Value comparison for the first month
2017-02 119,120,000,000 USD / 2016-02 121,846,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2017-02 · -2.2373%
Condition exit month
2017-03 · 15.2163%

From 2017-02 through 2017-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2017-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2017-02-01=119120000000; baseline 2016-02-01=121846000000; negative months 2017-02-01..2017-02-01; first nonnegative 2017-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2016-02-01..2017-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2016.04 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2016-049 months

Observed 2016-04 → 2017-01 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2016-04 · -5.54%
Value comparison for the first month
2016-04 166,157,000,000 USD / 2015-04 175,902,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2016-12 · -6.1989%
Condition exit month
2017-01 · 7.146%

From 2016-04 through 2016-12, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 9 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2017-01; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2016-04-01=166157000000; baseline 2015-04-01=175902000000; negative months 2016-04-01..2016-12-01; first nonnegative 2017-01-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2015-04-01..2017-01-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2015.07 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2015-078 months

Observed 2015-07 → 2016-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2015-07 · -9.2672%
Value comparison for the first month
2015-07 193,161,000,000 USD / 2014-07 212,890,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2016-02 · -27.8792%
Condition exit month
2016-03 · 7.8636%

From 2015-07 through 2016-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 8 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2016-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2015-07-01=193161000000; baseline 2014-07-01=212890000000; negative months 2015-07-01..2016-02-01; first nonnegative 2016-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2014-07-01..2016-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2015.03 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2015-033 months

Observed 2015-03 → 2015-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2015-03 · -15.1808%
Value comparison for the first month
2015-03 144,235,000,000 USD / 2014-03 170,050,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2015-05 · -3.4004%
Condition exit month
2015-06 · 1.4757%

From 2015-03 through 2015-05, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 3 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2015-06; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2015-03-01=144235000000; baseline 2014-03-01=170050000000; negative months 2015-03-01..2015-05-01; first nonnegative 2015-06-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2014-03-01..2015-06-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2015.01 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2015-011 months

Observed 2015-01 → 2015-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2015-01 · -3.4691%
Value comparison for the first month
2015-01 199,876,000,000 USD / 2014-01 207,059,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2015-01 · -3.4691%
Condition exit month
2015-02 · 48.1238%

From 2015-01 through 2015-01, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2015-02; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2015-01-01=199876000000; baseline 2014-01-01=207059000000; negative months 2015-01-01..2015-01-01; first nonnegative 2015-02-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2014-01-01..2015-02-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2014.02 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2014-022 months

Observed 2014-02 → 2014-04 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2014-02 · -18.1247%
Value comparison for the first month
2014-02 114,058,000,000 USD / 2013-02 139,307,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2014-03 · -6.6203%
Condition exit month
2014-04 · 0.8131%

From 2014-02 through 2014-03, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 2 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2014-04; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2014-02-01=114058000000; baseline 2013-02-01=139307000000; negative months 2014-02-01..2014-03-01; first nonnegative 2014-04-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2013-02-01..2014-04-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2013.09 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2013-091 months

Observed 2013-09 → 2013-10 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2013-09 · -0.2831%
Value comparison for the first month
2013-09 185,601,000,000 USD / 2012-09 186,128,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2013-09 · -0.2831%
Condition exit month
2013-10 · 5.6136%

From 2013-09 through 2013-09, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2013-10; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2013-09-01=185601000000; baseline 2012-09-01=186128000000; negative months 2013-09-01..2013-09-01; first nonnegative 2013-10-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2012-09-01..2013-10-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2013.06 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2013-061 months

Observed 2013-06 → 2013-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2013-06 · -3.1161%
Value comparison for the first month
2013-06 174,237,000,000 USD / 2012-06 179,841,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2013-06 · -3.1161%
Condition exit month
2013-07 · 5.0899%

From 2013-06 through 2013-06, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2013-07; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2013-06-01=174237000000; baseline 2012-06-01=179841000000; negative months 2013-06-01..2013-06-01; first nonnegative 2013-07-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2012-06-01..2013-07-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2012.01 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2012-011 months

Observed 2012-01 → 2012-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2012-01 · -0.5488%
Value comparison for the first month
2012-01 149,861,000,000 USD / 2011-01 150,688,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2012-01 · -0.5488%
Condition exit month
2012-02 · 18.3036%

From 2012-01 through 2012-01, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2012-02; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2012-01-01=149861000000; baseline 2011-01-01=150688000000; negative months 2012-01-01..2012-01-01; first nonnegative 2012-02-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2011-01-01..2012-02-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2008.11 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2008-1113 months

Observed 2008-11 → 2009-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2008-11 · -2.217%
Value comparison for the first month
2008-11 114,985,000,000 USD / 2007-11 117,592,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2009-11 · -1.1532%
Condition exit month
2009-12 · 17.7255%

From 2008-11 through 2009-11, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 13 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2009-12; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2008-11-01=114985000000; baseline 2007-11-01=117592000000; negative months 2008-11-01..2009-11-01; first nonnegative 2009-12-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2007-11-01..2009-12-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2002.02 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2002-021 months

Observed 2002-02 → 2002-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2002-02 · -0.3229%
Value comparison for the first month
2002-02 19,137,000,000 USD / 2001-02 19,199,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2002-02 · -0.3229%
Condition exit month
2002-03 · 2.9344%

From 2002-02 through 2002-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2002-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2002-02-01=19137000000; baseline 2001-02-01=19199000000; negative months 2002-02-01..2002-02-01; first nonnegative 2002-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2001-02-01..2002-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
2001.06 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 2001-061 months

Observed 2001-06 → 2001-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
2001-06 · -0.5449%
Value comparison for the first month
2001-06 22,083,000,000 USD / 2000-06 22,204,000,000 USD
Last declining month
2001-06 · -0.5449%
Condition exit month
2001-07 · 6.5698%

From 2001-06 through 2001-06, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 2001-07; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 2001-06-01=22083000000; baseline 2000-06-01=22204000000; negative months 2001-06-01..2001-06-01; first nonnegative 2001-07-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 2000-06-01..2001-07-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1999.06 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1999-061 months

Observed 1999-06 → 1999-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1999-06 · -1.6384%
Value comparison for the first month
1999-06 15,309,000,000 USD / 1998-06 15,564,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1999-06 · -1.6384%
Condition exit month
1999-07 · 7.3137%

From 1999-06 through 1999-06, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1999-07; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1999-06-01=15309000000; baseline 1998-06-01=15564000000; negative months 1999-06-01..1999-06-01; first nonnegative 1999-07-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1998-06-01..1999-07-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1999.01 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1999-014 months

Observed 1999-01 → 1999-05 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1999-01 · -11.0346%
Value comparison for the first month
1999-01 11,368,000,000 USD / 1998-01 12,778,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1999-04 · -7.4274%
Condition exit month
1999-05 · 4.1412%

From 1999-01 through 1999-04, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 4 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1999-05; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1999-01-01=11368000000; baseline 1998-01-01=12778000000; negative months 1999-01-01..1999-04-01; first nonnegative 1999-05-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1998-01-01..1999-05-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1998.08 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1998-084 months

Observed 1998-08 → 1998-12 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1998-08 · -2.8646%
Value comparison for the first month
1998-08 15,564,000,000 USD / 1997-08 16,023,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1998-11 · -9.6978%
Condition exit month
1998-12 · 3.3198%

From 1998-08 through 1998-11, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 4 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1998-12; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1998-08-01=15564000000; baseline 1997-08-01=16023000000; negative months 1998-08-01..1998-11-01; first nonnegative 1998-12-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1997-08-01..1998-12-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1998.05 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1998-051 months

Observed 1998-05 → 1998-06 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1998-05 · -1.7476%
Value comparison for the first month
1998-05 14,899,000,000 USD / 1997-05 15,164,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1998-05 · -1.7476%
Condition exit month
1998-06 · 1.3347%

From 1998-05 through 1998-05, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1998-06; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1998-05-01=14899000000; baseline 1997-05-01=15164000000; negative months 1998-05-01..1998-05-01; first nonnegative 1998-06-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1997-05-01..1998-06-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1995.11 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1995-118 months

Observed 1995-11 → 1996-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1995-11 · -3.8677%
Value comparison for the first month
1995-11 12,179,000,000 USD / 1994-11 12,669,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1996-06 · -12.7476%
Condition exit month
1996-07 · 0.9863%

From 1995-11 through 1996-06, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 8 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1996-07; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1995-11-01=12179000000; baseline 1994-11-01=12669000000; negative months 1995-11-01..1996-06-01; first nonnegative 1996-07-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1994-11-01..1996-07-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1994.02 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1994-021 months

Observed 1994-02 → 1994-03 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1994-02 · -1.5456%
Value comparison for the first month
1994-02 5,733,000,000 USD / 1993-02 5,823,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1994-02 · -1.5456%
Condition exit month
1994-03 · 22.8898%

From 1994-02 through 1994-02, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1994-03; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1994-02-01=5733000000; baseline 1993-02-01=5823000000; negative months 1994-02-01..1994-02-01; first nonnegative 1994-03-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1993-02-01..1994-03-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1993.08 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1993-081 months

Observed 1993-08 → 1993-09 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1993-08 · -0.183%
Value comparison for the first month
1993-08 7,636,000,000 USD / 1992-08 7,650,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1993-08 · -0.183%
Condition exit month
1993-09 · 25.0283%

From 1993-08 through 1993-08, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1993-09; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1993-08-01=7636000000; baseline 1992-08-01=7650000000; negative months 1993-08-01..1993-08-01; first nonnegative 1993-09-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1992-08-01..1993-09-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1993.06 start · Chinese export-decline spellCompleted · 1993-061 months

Observed 1993-06 → 1993-07 · As of 2026-06-30

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1993-06 · -9.2452%
Value comparison for the first month
1993-06 6,950,000,000 USD / 1992-06 7,658,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1993-06 · -9.2452%
Condition exit month
1993-07 · 6.5093%

From 1993-06 through 1993-06, year-over-year export-value changes were negative for 1 consecutive months. The spell closes at the observation at or above 0% in 1993-07; the exit month is not included in duration. This does not indicate month-over-month declines, real export volume or investment returns.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1993-06-01=6950000000; baseline 1992-06-01=7658000000; negative months 1993-06-01..1993-06-01; first nonnegative 1993-07-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1992-06-01..1993-07-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation
1993.01 first observation · Entry unknown · Chinese export-decline spellExcluded · 1993-01—

Observed 1993-01 → 1993-02 · As of 2026-06-30

Exclusion reason: The actual entry cannot be identified because the preceding month’s source data or historical values required for calculation are missing.

Measurement coverage
China’s merchandise exports to the world · Nominal dollars · Not seasonally adjusted
Year-over-year change in the first observed month
1993-01 · -15.8857%
Value comparison for the first month
1993-01 3,357,000,000 USD / 1992-01 3,991,000,000 USD
Last declining month
1993-01 · -15.8857%
Condition exit month
1993-02 · 17.163%

The actual entry cannot be identified because the preceding month’s source data or historical values required for calculation are missing. The negative observation in 1993-01 remains listed, but is excluded from the average because its full duration is unknown.

  • International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; YoY = (X_t / X_(t-12) - 1) × 100; first 1993-01-01=3357000000; baseline 1992-01-01=3991000000; negative months 1993-01-01..1993-01-01; first nonnegative 1993-02-01
  • FRED full monthly observation table · China merchandise exports ↗OECD · retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Checked 2026-10-09 · XTEXVA01CNM667N; CHN / counterpart W / USD_EXC / exports X / commodities C / NSA N / monthly M; Raw monthly rows 1992-01-01..1993-02-01; no missing-month interpolation or January/February allocation

How to interpret this

Both short single-month declines and declines lasting several months remain included, rather than selecting particular crises. Consecutive spells do not overlap but share economic conditions and base effects, so statistical independence or predictive power is not guaranteed. Recovery above the same month a year earlier is distinct from regaining an earlier peak, increasing export volume or ending a recession.

Nominal dollar values are affected by prices, exchange rates and product composition; they are not real export volumes or profits. Because the data are not seasonally adjusted, Lunar New Year calendar shifts and differences in business days can particularly affect year-over-year changes in months 1~2 and short spells. China’s combined early-year releases and OECD/FRED’s individual monthly statistics can differ in release methods and revision timing. These are China’s exports to the entire world, not US imports from China. Observations revised after the fact are not treated as real-time signals available at the time. The last source observation is 2026-06 and was not arbitrarily extended to the verification date, 2026-10-09. Completed-case averages exclude unconfirmed or unknown-entry spells and cannot predict the remaining duration of a current spell. Reuse of OECD data must maintain attribution and the same attribution obligation in subsequent redistribution.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Uses the entire monthly source series for 1992-01~2026-06 from XTEXVA01CNM667N, OECD International Merchandise Trade Statistics distributed by FRED. The dimensions are area CHN, partner W, commodity C, exports X, nominal converted dollars USD_EXC and non-seasonally adjusted N. Each month’s year-over-year rate is (current-month value/value 12 months earlier−1)×100, calculable from 1993-01. All consecutive monthly spells whose unrounded rate is strictly below 0 form a case; the first month at or above 0 is stored as the ending boundary. Values count negative months, excluding the ending-boundary month. Day 1 in every date is a normalized monthly representation, not an actual release date or daily turning point. The 1993-01 spell has unknown actual entry because the 1991-12 value needed to calculate the preceding 1992-12 annual change is unavailable; it is excluded from duration statistics but included in the observation count. Spells unclosed at the data end are excluded from completed statistics; gaps are neither bridged nor interpolated. OECD’s separate month 1 and month 2 values are used unchanged, without arbitrarily splitting the Chinese customs combined release for the two months. OECD (2026), International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Exports: Commodities for China, retrieved from FRED, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/XTEXVA01CNM667N (accessed 2026-10-09). Year-over-year calculations, consecutive-spell extraction and the Korean commentary process the underlying data and do not represent the official views of OECD or its member countries.