ASSETCASTING

Did the trade-weighted dollar index strengthen in the last two months of the year?

trade-weighted dollar index · First valid observation → last valid observation in months 11~12 · Since 2007

Total 19 · Completed 19 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2025-11-03 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases10 / 19Negative 9 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.4%Mean +0%
Completed outcome range-4.7% ~ +3.8%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.11.03 · 2025, months 11~12Completed · 2025-11-03-1.4%

Observed 2025-11-03 → 2025-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-11-03 · 121.4512 index
Ending observation
2025-12-31 · 119.7456 index
Calendar window
2025, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 121.4512 to 119.7456, a spot-quote change of -1.4044%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.11.01 · 2024, months 11~12Completed · 2024-11-01+3.6%

Observed 2024-11-01 → 2024-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-11-01 · 124.8076 index
Ending observation
2024-12-31 · 129.2775 index
Calendar window
2024, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 124.8076 to 129.2775, a spot-quote change of 3.5814%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.11.01 · 2023, months 11~12Completed · 2023-11-01-4.3%

Observed 2023-11-01 → 2023-12-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-11-01 · 123.7922 index
Ending observation
2023-12-29 · 118.4208 index
Calendar window
2023, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 123.7922 to 118.4208, a spot-quote change of -4.339%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.11.01 · 2022, months 11~12Completed · 2022-11-01-4.7%

Observed 2022-11-01 → 2022-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-11-01 · 127.3987 index
Ending observation
2022-12-30 · 121.4256 index
Calendar window
2022, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 127.3987 to 121.4256, a spot-quote change of -4.6885%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2021.11.01 · 2021, months 11~12Completed · 2021-11-01+0.9%

Observed 2021-11-01 → 2021-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2021-11-01 · 114.2067 index
Ending observation
2021-12-30 · 115.283 index
Calendar window
2021, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 114.2067 to 115.283, a spot-quote change of 0.9424%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.11.02 · 2020, months 11~12Completed · 2020-11-02-4.2%

Observed 2020-11-02 → 2020-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-11-02 · 116.2361 index
Ending observation
2020-12-31 · 111.3169 index
Calendar window
2020, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 116.2361 to 111.3169, a spot-quote change of -4.2321%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2019.11.01 · 2019, months 11~12Completed · 2019-11-01-0.9%

Observed 2019-11-01 → 2019-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2019-11-01 · 115.7312 index
Ending observation
2019-12-31 · 114.669 index
Calendar window
2019, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 115.7312 to 114.669, a spot-quote change of -0.9178%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.11.01 · 2018, months 11~12Completed · 2018-11-01-0.3%

Observed 2018-11-01 → 2018-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-11-01 · 115.8657 index
Ending observation
2018-12-31 · 115.5674 index
Calendar window
2018, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 115.8657 to 115.5674, a spot-quote change of -0.2575%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2017.11.01 · 2017, months 11~12Completed · 2017-11-01-1.5%

Observed 2017-11-01 → 2017-12-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2017-11-01 · 111.7942 index
Ending observation
2017-12-29 · 110.0783 index
Calendar window
2017, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 111.7942 to 110.0783, a spot-quote change of -1.5349%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.11.01 · 2016, months 11~12Completed · 2016-11-01+3.8%

Observed 2016-11-01 → 2016-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-11-01 · 113.9915 index
Ending observation
2016-12-30 · 118.3466 index
Calendar window
2016, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 113.9915 to 118.3466, a spot-quote change of 3.8205%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.11.02 · 2015, months 11~12Completed · 2015-11-02+2.8%

Observed 2015-11-02 → 2015-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-11-02 · 110.2188 index
Ending observation
2015-12-31 · 113.3429 index
Calendar window
2015, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 110.2188 to 113.3429, a spot-quote change of 2.8345%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2014.11.03 · 2014, months 11~12Completed · 2014-11-03+3.8%

Observed 2014-11-03 → 2014-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2014-11-03 · 98.5336 index
Ending observation
2014-12-31 · 102.2843 index
Calendar window
2014, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 98.5336 to 102.2843, a spot-quote change of 3.8065%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2013.11.01 · 2013, months 11~12Completed · 2013-11-01+0.4%

Observed 2013-11-01 → 2013-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2013-11-01 · 93.155 index
Ending observation
2013-12-31 · 93.5576 index
Calendar window
2013, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 93.155 to 93.5576, a spot-quote change of 0.4322%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.11.01 · 2012, months 11~12Completed · 2012-11-01-0%

Observed 2012-11-01 → 2012-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-11-01 · 91.1217 index
Ending observation
2012-12-31 · 91.0834 index
Calendar window
2012, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 91.1217 to 91.0834, a spot-quote change of -0.042%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.11.01 · 2011, months 11~12Completed · 2011-11-01+1.9%

Observed 2011-11-01 → 2011-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-11-01 · 90.7296 index
Ending observation
2011-12-30 · 92.4262 index
Calendar window
2011, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 90.7296 to 92.4262, a spot-quote change of 1.87%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.11.01 · 2010, months 11~12Completed · 2010-11-01+0.5%

Observed 2010-11-01 → 2010-12-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-11-01 · 90.0307 index
Ending observation
2010-12-30 · 90.5146 index
Calendar window
2010, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 90.0307 to 90.5146, a spot-quote change of 0.5375%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.11.02 · 2009, months 11~12Completed · 2009-11-02+0.5%

Observed 2009-11-02 → 2009-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-11-02 · 92.4501 index
Ending observation
2009-12-31 · 92.9124 index
Calendar window
2009, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 92.4501 to 92.9124, a spot-quote change of 0.5001%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.11.03 · 2008, months 11~12Completed · 2008-11-03-0.8%

Observed 2008-11-03 → 2008-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-11-03 · 99.4345 index
Ending observation
2008-12-31 · 98.6518 index
Calendar window
2008, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 99.4345 to 98.6518, a spot-quote change of -0.7872%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.11.01 · 2007, months 11~12Completed · 2007-11-01+0.5%

Observed 2007-11-01 → 2007-12-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-11-01 · 89.1628 index
Ending observation
2007-12-31 · 89.6304 index
Calendar window
2007, months 11~12 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 89.1628 to 89.6304, a spot-quote change of 0.5244%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all annual calendar windows corresponding to months 11~12 between 2007-01-01~2026-10-02. The observation start date is the first valid observation in that window, and the end date is the last valid observation. These are therefore not monthly changes relative to the previous month-end or total returns for an entire quarter; they exclude the first observation day’s change relative to the preceding day. Cases whose calendar end date has not yet arrived are marked ongoing and excluded from means and medians. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are trade-weighted dollar index, with positive values indicating trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.