ASSETCASTING

How did the trade-weighted dollar index move in month 9?

trade-weighted dollar index · First valid observation → last valid observation in month 9 · Since 2007

Total 20 · Completed 20 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2026-09-01 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases11 / 20Negative 9 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.4%Mean +0.3%
Completed outcome range-2.9% ~ +5.9%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2026.09.01 · 2026, month 9Completed · 2026-09-01+1.9%

Observed 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2026-09-01 · 118.6568 index
Ending observation
2026-09-30 · 120.9693 index
Calendar window
2026, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 118.6568 to 120.9693, a spot-quote change of 1.9489%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2025.09.02 · 2025, month 9Completed · 2025-09-02-0.5%

Observed 2025-09-02 → 2025-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-09-02 · 120.6837 index
Ending observation
2025-09-30 · 120.1368 index
Calendar window
2025, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 120.6837 to 120.1368, a spot-quote change of -0.4532%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2024.09.03 · 2024, month 9Completed · 2024-09-03-1.2%

Observed 2024-09-03 → 2024-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2024-09-03 · 122.7811 index
Ending observation
2024-09-30 · 121.2864 index
Calendar window
2024, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 122.7811 to 121.2864, a spot-quote change of -1.2174%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.09.01 · 2023, month 9Completed · 2023-09-01+1.3%

Observed 2023-09-01 → 2023-09-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-09-01 · 120.759 index
Ending observation
2023-09-29 · 122.3077 index
Calendar window
2023, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 120.759 to 122.3077, a spot-quote change of 1.2825%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.09.01 · 2022, month 9Completed · 2022-09-01+2.5%

Observed 2022-09-01 → 2022-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-09-01 · 124.4006 index
Ending observation
2022-09-30 · 127.5148 index
Calendar window
2022, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 124.4006 to 127.5148, a spot-quote change of 2.5034%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2021.09.01 · 2021, month 9Completed · 2021-09-01+1.6%

Observed 2021-09-01 → 2021-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2021-09-01 · 112.8732 index
Ending observation
2021-09-30 · 114.6403 index
Calendar window
2021, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 112.8732 to 114.6403, a spot-quote change of 1.5656%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.09.01 · 2020, month 9Completed · 2020-09-01+1.2%

Observed 2020-09-01 → 2020-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-09-01 · 115.5687 index
Ending observation
2020-09-30 · 116.946 index
Calendar window
2020, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 115.5687 to 116.946, a spot-quote change of 1.1918%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2019.09.03 · 2019, month 9Completed · 2019-09-03-0.3%

Observed 2019-09-03 → 2019-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2019-09-03 · 118.3113 index
Ending observation
2019-09-30 · 117.9461 index
Calendar window
2019, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 118.3113 to 117.9461, a spot-quote change of -0.3087%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.09.04 · 2018, month 9Completed · 2018-09-04-0.9%

Observed 2018-09-04 → 2018-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-09-04 · 114.8584 index
Ending observation
2018-09-28 · 113.8077 index
Calendar window
2018, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 114.8584 to 113.8077, a spot-quote change of -0.9148%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2017.09.01 · 2017, month 9Completed · 2017-09-01+1%

Observed 2017-09-01 → 2017-09-29 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2017-09-01 · 109.0504 index
Ending observation
2017-09-29 · 110.0867 index
Calendar window
2017, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 109.0504 to 110.0867, a spot-quote change of 0.9503%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.09.01 · 2016, month 9Completed · 2016-09-01+0.1%

Observed 2016-09-01 → 2016-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-09-01 · 112.1733 index
Ending observation
2016-09-30 · 112.2795 index
Calendar window
2016, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 112.1733 to 112.2795, a spot-quote change of 0.0947%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2015.09.01 · 2015, month 9Completed · 2015-09-01+0.8%

Observed 2015-09-01 → 2015-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2015-09-01 · 110.4506 index
Ending observation
2015-09-30 · 111.3311 index
Calendar window
2015, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 110.4506 to 111.3311, a spot-quote change of 0.7972%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2014.09.02 · 2014, month 9Completed · 2014-09-02+2.6%

Observed 2014-09-02 → 2014-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2014-09-02 · 95.063 index
Ending observation
2014-09-30 · 97.5261 index
Calendar window
2014, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 95.063 to 97.5261, a spot-quote change of 2.591%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2013.09.03 · 2013, month 9Completed · 2013-09-03-2.1%

Observed 2013-09-03 → 2013-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2013-09-03 · 94.9574 index
Ending observation
2013-09-30 · 92.9207 index
Calendar window
2013, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 94.9574 to 92.9207, a spot-quote change of -2.1449%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.09.04 · 2012, month 9Completed · 2012-09-04-1.4%

Observed 2012-09-04 → 2012-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-09-04 · 92.1582 index
Ending observation
2012-09-28 · 90.8342 index
Calendar window
2012, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 92.1582 to 90.8342, a spot-quote change of -1.4367%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2011.09.01 · 2011, month 9Completed · 2011-09-01+5.9%

Observed 2011-09-01 → 2011-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2011-09-01 · 86.8512 index
Ending observation
2011-09-30 · 91.9998 index
Calendar window
2011, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 86.8512 to 91.9998, a spot-quote change of 5.9281%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.09.01 · 2010, month 9Completed · 2010-09-01-2.9%

Observed 2010-09-01 → 2010-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-09-01 · 94.1148 index
Ending observation
2010-09-30 · 91.3415 index
Calendar window
2010, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 94.1148 to 91.3415, a spot-quote change of -2.9467%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.09.01 · 2009, month 9Completed · 2009-09-01-2.1%

Observed 2009-09-01 → 2009-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-09-01 · 95.2201 index
Ending observation
2009-09-30 · 93.1907 index
Calendar window
2009, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 95.2201 to 93.1907, a spot-quote change of -2.1313%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.09.01 · 2008, month 9Completed · 2008-09-01+2.6%

Observed 2008-09-01 → 2008-09-30 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-09-01 · 90.08 index
Ending observation
2008-09-30 · 92.3773 index
Calendar window
2008, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 90.08 to 92.3773, a spot-quote change of 2.5503%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.09.03 · 2007, month 9Completed · 2007-09-03-2.9%

Observed 2007-09-03 → 2007-09-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-09-03 · 93.6691 index
Ending observation
2007-09-28 · 90.9446 index
Calendar window
2007, month 9 · First valid observation → last valid observation in that window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 93.6691 to 90.9446, a spot-quote change of -2.9086%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Includes all annual calendar windows corresponding to month 9 between 2007-01-01~2026-10-02. The observation start date is the first valid observation in that window, and the end date is the last valid observation. These are therefore not monthly changes relative to the previous month-end or total returns for an entire quarter; they exclude the first observation day’s change relative to the preceding day. Cases whose calendar end date has not yet arrived are marked ongoing and excluded from means and medians. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are trade-weighted dollar index, with positive values indicating trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.