ASSETCASTING

What followed a 3% one-month fall in the trade-weighted dollar index?

trade-weighted dollar index · New downward crossing of -3% over the preceding 21 valid observations → next 21 valid observations

Total 18 · Completed 18 · Ongoing 0 · Excluded 0

Last observed 2025-04-21 · Updated 2026-10-09

Positive / completed cases12 / 18Negative 6 · Flat 0
Return Median+0.3%Mean +0.4%
Completed outcome range-1.5% ~ +4%Minimum ~ maximum

Same conditions, different outcomes

Positive and negative outcomes are compared against 0%. Ongoing and excluded cases are not included in the statistics. Open a case to explore its context.

2025.04.21 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2025-04-21+0%

Observed 2025-04-21 → 2025-05-20 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2025-04-21 · 122.3145 index
Ending observation
2025-05-20 · 122.3199 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.131% (2025-03-21 → 2025-04-21)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 122.3145 to 122.3199, a spot-quote change of 0.0044%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.11.28 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2023-11-28-1%

Observed 2023-11-28 → 2023-12-28 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-11-28 · 119.5904 index
Ending observation
2023-12-28 · 118.4104 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.5611% (2023-10-26 → 2023-11-28)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 119.5904 to 118.4104, a spot-quote change of -0.9867%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.04.13 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2023-04-13+0.8%

Observed 2023-04-13 → 2023-05-12 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-04-13 · 118.3915 index
Ending observation
2023-05-12 · 119.3671 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.0435% (2023-03-15 → 2023-04-13)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 118.3915 to 119.3671, a spot-quote change of 0.824%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2023.02.02 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2023-02-02+1.8%

Observed 2023-02-02 → 2023-03-06 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2023-02-02 · 118.3421 index
Ending observation
2023-03-06 · 120.485 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.0702% (2023-01-03 → 2023-02-02)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 118.3421 to 120.485, a spot-quote change of 1.8108%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2022.11.14 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2022-11-14-1.3%

Observed 2022-11-14 → 2022-12-14 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2022-11-14 · 123.4277 index
Ending observation
2022-12-14 · 121.8226 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.3672% (2022-10-13 → 2022-11-14)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 123.4277 to 121.8226, a spot-quote change of -1.3004%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.12.02 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2020-12-02-1.5%

Observed 2020-12-02 → 2021-01-05 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-12-02 · 112.6115 index
Ending observation
2021-01-05 · 110.9574 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.1773% (2020-10-29 → 2020-12-02)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 112.6115 to 110.9574, a spot-quote change of -1.4689%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2020.06.03 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2020-06-03+0.5%

Observed 2020-06-03 → 2020-07-02 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2020-06-03 · 119.2556 index
Ending observation
2020-07-02 · 119.8555 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.2108% (2020-05-04 → 2020-06-03)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 119.2556 to 119.8555, a spot-quote change of 0.503%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2018.01.24 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2018-01-24+0.6%

Observed 2018-01-24 → 2018-02-23 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2018-01-24 · 107.0802 index
Ending observation
2018-02-23 · 107.6804 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.4257% (2017-12-21 → 2018-01-24)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 107.0802 to 107.6804, a spot-quote change of 0.5605%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2016.03.17 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2016-03-17-0.2%

Observed 2016-03-17 → 2016-04-15 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2016-03-17 · 110.445 index
Ending observation
2016-04-15 · 110.1933 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.0022% (2016-02-17 → 2016-03-17)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 110.445 to 110.1933, a spot-quote change of -0.2279%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2012.02.06 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2012-02-06+1%

Observed 2012-02-06 → 2012-03-07 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2012-02-06 · 89.7907 index
Ending observation
2012-03-07 · 90.6837 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.01% (2012-01-05 → 2012-02-06)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 89.7907 to 90.6837, a spot-quote change of 0.9945%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.09.24 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2010-09-24-1.4%

Observed 2010-09-24 → 2010-10-26 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-09-24 · 91.5996 index
Ending observation
2010-10-26 · 90.2818 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.3119% (2010-08-25 → 2010-09-24)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 91.5996 to 90.2818, a spot-quote change of -1.4387%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2010.08.02 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2010-08-02+2.1%

Observed 2010-08-02 → 2010-08-31 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2010-08-02 · 92.7916 index
Ending observation
2010-08-31 · 94.7204 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.1421% (2010-07-01 → 2010-08-02)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 92.7916 to 94.7204, a spot-quote change of 2.0786%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.08.06 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-08-06+0.7%

Observed 2009-08-06 → 2009-09-04 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-08-06 · 93.9358 index
Ending observation
2009-09-04 · 94.5811 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.1793% (2009-07-08 → 2009-08-06)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 93.9358 to 94.5811, a spot-quote change of 0.687%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.05.19 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-05-19-1.2%

Observed 2009-05-19 → 2009-06-18 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-05-19 · 97.2827 index
Ending observation
2009-06-18 · 96.1482 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-4.1058% (2009-04-20 → 2009-05-19)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 97.2827 to 96.1482, a spot-quote change of -1.1662%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2009.03.19 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2009-03-19+0.2%

Observed 2009-03-19 → 2009-04-17 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2009-03-19 · 100.3951 index
Ending observation
2009-04-17 · 100.5719 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.502% (2009-02-18 → 2009-03-19)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 100.3951 to 100.5719, a spot-quote change of 0.1761%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.12.17 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-12-17+4%

Observed 2008-12-17 → 2009-01-16 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-12-17 · 96.8227 index
Ending observation
2009-01-16 · 100.711 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-4.5108% (2008-11-18 → 2008-12-17)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 96.8227 to 100.711, a spot-quote change of 4.0159%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2008.03.13 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2008-03-13+0.1%

Observed 2008-03-13 → 2008-04-11 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2008-03-13 · 86.3891 index
Ending observation
2008-04-11 · 86.5029 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.0841% (2008-02-13 → 2008-03-13)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 86.3891 to 86.5029, a spot-quote change of 0.1317%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

2007.11.07 -3% condition confirmedCompleted · 2007-11-07+2.1%

Observed 2007-11-07 → 2007-12-06 · As of 2026-10-02

Starting observation
2007-11-07 · 88.0631 index
Ending observation
2007-12-06 · 89.9268 index
Change over the preceding 21 valid observations
-3.0792% (2007-10-09 → 2007-11-07)
Condition threshold
New crossing of the -3% threshold · No overlap with the preceding case’s follow-up window

The observed trade-weighted dollar index changed from 88.0631 to 89.9268, a spot-quote change of 2.1163%. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. This is not an investment return incorporating interest-rate differentials, carry and transaction costs, and the condition is not established as the cause of the change.

How to interpret this

These descriptive statistics compare how direction and magnitude differed across observed cases under the same condition. Positive values indicate trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. A particular season or a past sharp move cannot be assumed to determine subsequent exchange rates. No comparison with unconditional changes over the full period or separate validation sample was performed, so no outperformance is claimed.

These are changes in spot exchange-rate or dollar-index quotes, not investment returns including dividends, interest, carry, transaction costs and foreign-exchange spreads. Examining multiple conditions within the same sample can produce chance findings. Thresholds are not natural economic laws, and results differ with other criteria. Follow-up windows within the same pattern do not overlap, but statistical independence is not guaranteed and cases can overlap across patterns. Federal Reserve data are published after their observation dates and may be revised, so these results do not establish real-time tradability or predictive power.

Conditions, methodology and sources

Examines valid daily observations from 2007-01-01~2026-10-02 in sequence, using 2006 data for preliminary calculations. The condition observation date is the first crossing when the change versus 21 valid observations earlier reaches -3% or lower. The same condition must not have been met on the preceding day. After selecting a case, no other case is selected from that date through the next 21 valid observations; only a new subsequent crossing is selected. All cases meeting this rule are included, without selecting by the direction of the outcome. The endpoint of the next 21 valid observations is not used to select the condition. The 21 observations represent roughly a month, not a calendar month; cases with insufficient follow-up observations remain ongoing. Source data are the Federal Reserve’s H.10 daily data. Missing status ND(-9999) is excluded without interpolation. Change is calculated as (ending observation / starting observation - 1) × 100 and stored to 8 decimal places. Quotes are trade-weighted dollar index, with positive values indicating trade-weighted dollar strength; negative values indicate weakness. Dates are source observation reference dates, not publication times or times when trading was possible. The source is revised data from the release of 2026-10-05, not a real-time investment-strategy backtest.