Japan’s care workforce plan: Projected staffing needs and actual capacity
Japan’s 9th long-term care insurance planning cycle distinguishes projected staffing requirements from the observed workforce baseline.
Updated Nov 8, 2026
Staffing estimated from service plans
In 2024-07, the ministry aggregated staffing requirements estimated from local service plans. It reported about 2,150,000 workers in fiscal 2022 as the baseline and projected requirements of 2,400,000 in fiscal 2026 and 2,720,000 in fiscal 2040.
Checking capacity at provider level
Subtracting the 2022 baseline from a projection estimates the increase required under the plan. A provider can estimate visits it can actually deliver from staff available for deployment, travel and handover time, and shift schedules.
Scope of the Japanese projection
National projections cannot establish vacancies in a given area, the profitability of a provider or utilization at a Korean long-term care facility.
Sources
- Japan MHLW | Staffing needs under the 9th long-term care insurance plansAccessed Nov 8, 2026