Cut to 1 (one) 10 (ten) th: Cisco's dotcom bust of 2000-2002
Actual records of the Nasdaq's 76.81% crash, Cisco's over 80% fall, and a $2.2B inventory charge confirm what the dotcom bust was.
Updated Oct 19, 2026
Peak and trough: from 5,048 to 1,139
The Nasdaq peaked at 5,048.62 on 2000-03-10, then fell to 1,139.90 on 2002-10-04, a 76.81% drop. Blue-chip tech names like Cisco, Intel, and Oracle lost over 80%, and most dotcom stocks went bust by end 2001. Regaining the peak took 15 years, until 2015-04-23.
Proof in results: a $2.69B loss and $2.2B of inventory
In results announced 2001-05-09, Cisco posted a $2.69B quarterly loss with its first-ever quarterly sales decline. That year it wrote down over $2.2B in inventory, admitting demand had vanished.
The comparison yardstick: overbuilt plant versus shortage signals
The 2000 episode was idle fiber glut with supply ahead of demand. Against today's shortage signals like 100% utilization and rising used-chip rents, the structure runs opposite — so comparing supply-demand structures matters more than multiple numbers.
Survivor bias and the value trap
Cisco survived, but most dotcom firms went bust — beware survivor-only bias. Just as low multiples can mark peak earnings, past drawdowns never guarantee a present floor.
Sources
- Cisco Loses $2.69 Billion on Declining SalesAccessed Oct 19, 2026
- Will an AI-Bubble Repeat the Dotcom Crash of the Year 2000?Accessed Oct 19, 2026
- Twice Shy at Cisco?Accessed Oct 19, 2026