[Hong Jang-won's Bull & Bear] An erroneous FT report or market fear... What really caused AI stocks to plunge?
- What to look for
- You can examine the full story of the episode, from the origins of the controversy over OpenAI's annualized revenue of 700 hundred million versus 500 hundred million, through the difference between gross and net accounting, to the FT's revised report.
- Why it matters
- Distinguishing the limitations of annualized figures from differences in revenue recognition can help you independently evaluate controversies over AI companies' financial performance.
AI summary
It reports that Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks plunged amid questions about slowing AI demand after the FT reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue at the end of month 9 was closer to 500 hundred million dollars rather than the previously reported 700 hundred million dollars. Stocks of companies sharing its ecosystem, including Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave, fell, and it explains that the impact on privately held OpenAI can be inferred from these companies' share prices. It examines how the 700 hundred million dollars reported by Axios and Reuters at the end of month 9 was on a gross basis, while the FT's 500 hundred million dollars was on a net basis, meaning figures calculated on different bases were being compared. Using an example of a sale worth ten thousand won, it explains the accounting difference between Anthropic, which records sales through cloud providers on a gross basis, and OpenAI, which records only the money actually received. It argues that the FT's initial article amplified misunderstanding by treating this as investors' miscalculation rather than a difference in accounting basis, and that selling flooded related stocks because OpenAI sits at the front of the AI chain. It assesses that the episode was resolved as a misunderstanding after the FT revised its report to say that net revenue of 500 hundred million dollars and gross revenue of 700 hundred million dollars were consistent with earlier reports, but that it also exposed the market's nervous outlook. It concludes that growth rates measured on the same basis, profitability, cash burn, and financing should be checked, and identifies OpenAI's rebuttal concerning its quarter 3 run rate, Trump's remarks, and a 30-year bond yield of 5.6% as variables. All directional forecasts are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.