Strategy for the Day (0911 Fri)
- What to look for
- You can examine the macro-first assessment that interest rates and liquidity determine market direction in an environment where the 10-year yield is 4.96% and the 30-year yield is at its highest since 2007.
- Why it matters
- This helps you learn a long-term structure with more than half in index ETFs, principles for the day such as prioritizing waiting and taking profits, and criteria for entry timing after the FOMC and BOJ.
AI summary
The video assesses the market as being in a phase where interest rates and liquidity, rather than individual company news, determine its direction: the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.96%, approaching the psychological threshold of 5%, while the 30-year yield has reached its highest level since 2007. It suggests a long-term structure for Korean investors: set aside their semiconductor-centered optimistic bias, hold KOSPI and major US index ETFs as more than half of their portfolios, and use the remaining funds for individual stocks and cash. It argues that the combination of war, WTI at 100 dollars, central bank tightening, and bond issuance by hyperscalers could keep upward pressure on yields for at least about a month, and that strong semiconductor earnings alone are unlikely to prevent broader weakness in risk assets. For the day, it prioritizes waiting and taking profits, recommends splitting purchases into small amounts, and identifies the latter part of next week, once market reactions following the FOMC and BOJ are confirmed, as the time to begin entering in earnest.