Should I sell all my Korean stocks and move into US stocks, even now..?, "Let me be completely honest with you." If it were me, this is what I would do now. (Center Director Kim Jang-yeol)
- What to look for
- Useful for investors considering whether to sell Korean stocks and move into US stocks who want to organize the causes of Korea-US decoupling and the variables for the 4th quarter—Big Tech earnings, the midterm elections, war, and Nvidia—into a checklist.
- Why it matters
- You can understand how interest rates affect valuations through discount rates, the market supply-and-demand structures that cause Korean and US share prices to diverge even with the same semiconductor fundamentals, and the effects on the Korean stock market under different Senate and House scenarios in the midterm elections.
AI summary
The center director diagnoses the fact that Micron and SanDisk rose 27~37% from the end of month 7 while Samsung Electronics and Hynix rose only 3~4% as a problem with Korea's particular market supply-and-demand dynamics and discount rates. He explains that rising interest rates are negative because they raise valuation discount rates, but in the United States they result from demand for funding for AI capital investment, so the market is adapting even above 5%. He says US stocks are holding up because the S&P500's 30% EPS growth and demand for AI investment offset high interest rates, while Korea is moving separately because of insufficient investor deposits and foreign investor outflows. As a response, he calls for diversification across KOSDAQ and sectors and nimble trading rather than concentration in Samsung Electronics and Hynix, and says that both an end to the war involving Iran and the direction of the Senate in the midterm elections remain uncertain and cannot be stated definitively. For quarter 4, he identifies Nvidia's earnings in the middle-to-latter part of month 11 and business plans for next year as variables, offering a neutral range-bound outlook with 10% upside and 5% downside. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional judgments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.