Today's strategy (0929 Tue)

The speaker says that market conditions change just as the seasons do, so investors need to adapt to change. Comparing the AI boom with past expectations surrounding electric vehicles, the metaverse, and solar power, the speaker argues that there is no guarantee technological progress will unfold in the direction or at the pace people expect. Mentioning problems with controlling AI agents and calls within the industry to moderate the pace of development, the speaker believes that if rising interest rates compound these concerns, AI stocks could lose upward momentum. The speaker explains that US interest rates rose the previous day, but the stock market recovered somewhat during the session, while the domestic market faces supply and demand pressures from quarter-end rebalancing and redemptions. In particular, the speaker interprets the sharp declines in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as potential price signals revealing weakened buying sentiment, rather than merely reflecting earnings factors. The speaker intends to remain on the sidelines for now, watching whether weakness spreads to stocks outside semiconductors and whether interest rates rise further. The speaker also mentions a possible short-term bottom or improvement in October (month 10), but acknowledges lacking conviction. All directional outlooks are the speaker's conditional assessments, not definitive predictions of short-term prices.