Indicator Tracker (0908 Tue)
- What to look for
- You can review an assessment that withholds confirmation of momentum because the KOSPI remains below its moving averages despite foreign investors' shift to net buying, and identifies a zone of tightening ahead of a directional move around the end of September (month 9).
- Why it matters
- This helps you understand conditions that could lead to further declines, such as the KOSDAQ's failed golden cross and weak profitability, along with the principles of holding 60% in cash and delaying action.
AI summary
Foreign investors' net buying of KOSPI cash equities and the decline in individual investors' cumulative net buying can be interpreted as upward pressure, but buying momentum still needs confirmation because the KOSPI remains below its major moving averages. The KOSPI's moving averages for 20 days, 60 days, and 120 days are converging, placing it in a zone where a major directional move could emerge around the end of September (month 9). The speaker assesses that the KOSDAQ faces a greater risk of further declines because its golden cross failed to materialize and corporate profitability is weak. The speaker believes Asian markets' movements depend on assessments of the US market and expectations for semiconductors and AI, and that the day's decline owed more to thin trading, yen strength, and position unwinding than to news about the Houthi rebels. With US Treasury auctions and next week's FOMC and BOJ meetings approaching, interest rate and exchange rate volatility could increase. With limited conviction, the speaker proposes raising the cash allocation to approximately 60% and delaying action until the market's direction becomes clear.